Travel & tourism sector's contribution to global GDP falls

The global economy is set for another year of above-potential recovery growth in 2022, after expanding by a robust 5.1 per cent in 2021. According to World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC), the travel and tourism sector suffered a loss of almost $4.5 trillion to reach $4.7 trillion in 2020, with the contribution to GDP dropping by a staggering 49.1 per cent compared to 2019; relative to a 3.7 per cent GDP decline of the global economy in 2020.

In 2019, the travel and tourism sector contributed 10.4 per cent to global GDP; a share which decreased to 5.5 per cent in 2020 due to ongoing restrictions to mobility. In 2020, 62 million jobs were lost, representing a drop of 18.5 per cent, leaving just 272 million employed across the sector globally, compared to 334 million in 2019. The threat of job losses persists as many jobs are currently supported by government retention schemes and reduced hours, which without a full recovery of travel and tourism could be lost.

Domestic visitor spending decreased by 45 per cent, while international visitor spending declined by an unprecedented 69.4 per cent. Despite the depth of the recession in the first half of 2020 -and the unexpected setbacks of the Delta variant in 2021- the global economy has recovered rapidly from the pandemic shock compared to past recessions. Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus in major economies around the world - which built a bridge to economic reopening enabled by the rapid development of effective vaccines - likely prevented the recession from devolving into a long period of lack luster economic growth.

Indeed, global GDP - which contracted by an unprecedented 3.3 per cent in 2020 - is calculated to have recovered all of its losses by Q1 2021. By the end of 2022, 66 out of 77 key economies, representing 96 per cent of global GDP, should be at or above pre-pandemic output levels, though labour market and income recovery will lag somewhat.

A year and a half since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the global economy is poised to stage its most robust post-recession recovery in 80 years in 2021. But the rebound is expected to be uneven across countries, as major economies look set to register strong growth even as many developing economies lag.

UNWTO's extended scenarios for 2021-2024 point to a rebound in international tourism by the second half of 2021. However a return to 2019 levels in terms of international arrivals could take two and a half to four years.

A roadmap to transform tourism needs to address five priority areas:

Mitigate socio-economic impacts on livelihoods, particularly women's employment and economic security.

Boost competitiveness and build resilience, including through economic diversification, with promotion of domestic and regional tourism where possible, and facilitation of conducive business environment for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs).

Advance innovation and digital transformation of tourism, including promotion of innovation and investment in digital skills, particularly for workers temporarily without jobs and for job seekers.