Stop Worsening Of Climate Change To Contain Natural Disasters And Deaths

Is climate action a lost cause? The United States is withdrawing from the Paris Agreement for the second time, while heat records over land and sea have toppled and extreme weather events have multiplied.

In late 2015, nations agreed through the Paris Agreement to try to hold warming well under two degrees Celsius and ideally to 1.5°C. Almost ten years later, cutting emissions to the point of meeting the 1.5°C goal looks very difficult.

But humanity has shifted track enough to avert the worst climate future. Renewables, energy efficiency and other measures have shifted the dial.

The worst scenario of expanded coal use, soaring emissions and a much hotter world is unlikely.

Instead, the Earth is tracking towards around 2.7°C average warming by 2100. That level of warming would represent “unprecedented peril” for life on this planet. But it shows progress is being made.

How did we get here?

Global greenhouse gas emissions have risen since industrialisation began around 1850. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is far and away the most common greenhouse gas we emit, while methane and nitrous oxide also play a role. These gases trap the sun’s heat in the atmosphere, preventing it from radiating back out to space.

In 2023, 41 per cent of the world’s energy-related CO₂ emissions came from coal, mainly for electricity generation. Some 32 per cent came from burning oil in road vehicles and 21 per cent from natural gas used for heating buildings and industrial processes.

The world is certainly feeling the effects. The World Meteorological Organization confirmed 2024 was the hottest year on record, temporarily hitting 1.5°C over the pre-industrial era. In turn, the world suffered lethal heatwaves, devastating floods and intense cyclones.

How are we tracking?

In 2014, the world’s peak body for assessing climate science — the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — began using four scenarios called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).

But Earth is tracking somewhere between RCP 2.6 and 4.5, which would translate to about 2.7°C of warming by 2100.

IPCC experts also developed five pathways of possible social, economic and political futures to complement the four scenarios.

The US, European Union and China together represent about 28 per cent of the global population but are responsible for 56 per cent of historic emissions (926 gigatonnes).

The world would have to be 100 per cent powered by clean sources and phase out fossil fuel use. This would limit global warming to around 1.5°C, with a certainty of just over 50 per cent. We would also have to end deforestation within the same timeframe.

Emissions peak:

Emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have still not plateaued, despite sharply increasing renewable electricity generation, battery storage and lower-cost electric vehicles.

But there has been real progress. The EU remains on track to reach its goal of reducing emissions by at least 55 per cent by 2030. Australia’s emissions fell by 0.6 per cent last year, while in the US, emissions are still below pre-pandemic levels.

The world’s largest emitter, China, is finally cutting its emissions. Huge growth in renewables has now led to the first emission drop on record, despite surging demand for power. For years, China’s domestic emissions remained high despite its leading role in solar, wind, EVs and battery technology.

According to the IPCC, limiting warming to around 1.5°C requires global emissions to peak before 2025 at the latest. It now looks like the peak may occur this year. In 2024, renewables accounted for more than 90 per cent of the growth in electricity production globally. Electric vehicles have become cost competitive, while heat pumps are developing fast and solar is on a winning streak.

So, is it too late to save the climate? No. The technologies we need are finally cheap enough. The sooner we stop climate change from worsening, the more disasters, famine and death we avert. We might not manage 1.5°C or even 2°C, but every tenth of a degree counts. The faster we make the shift, the better our climate future.

(The writer is a research director at the Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney-This article is republished from The Conversation)