Climate Threatens Ocean Economy’s Future Despite Booming Trade

Low-carbon fuels remain costly, ports lack essential infrastructure, and poor coordination on alternative fuels hinders investment. Developing economies struggle to finance the transition. Yet, most national climate plans exclude the ocean economy. Without urgent action, climate change will jeopardize both the ocean economy and global trade.

The ocean economy has expanded 2.5 times since 1995, outpacing global averages. In 2023, trade in ocean goods and services reached record highs—$899 billion and $1.3 trillion, respectively—highlighting the rising importance of marine activities for coastal and island nations. Fisheries alone now support 600 million people, mostly in developing countries.

Notably, South-South trade is accelerating. Between 2021 and 2023, primary fish exports rose 43% to $19 billion, while processed fish exports surged 89% to $23 billion.

Despite this, the ocean remains largely unexplored. Up to two-thirds of marine species are still unidentified, offering vast scientific and commercial potential. The marine biotechnology market, valued at $4.2 billion in 2023, is projected to grow to $6.4 billion by 2025, driven by low-carbon marine foods, novel antibiotics, and bio-based materials. However, climate change, pollution, overfishing, regulatory gaps, and chronic underinvestment threaten the sector’s sustainability.

The year 2024 was the hottest on record, with global temperatures 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, surpassing the critical 1.5°C threshold. Warming oceans disrupt marine ecosystems, deplete fish stocks, reduce harvests, and endanger food security—especially for coastal communities.

The risks also extend to maritime trade. Rising sea levels and drought affect port operations and shipping lanes, while extreme weather causes delays and inflates insurance costs.

Shipping, which contributes 2.9% of global emissions, faces an annual decarbonization cost of $8 billion to $28 billion, plus up to $90 billion for infrastructure upgrades. The International Maritime Organization’s 2023 greenhouse gas strategy outlines ambitious goals, but implementation remains slow. Low-carbon fuels are expensive, ports lack the infrastructure, coordination on alternative fuels is insufficient, and developing nations struggle to fund the transition.

Despite this, most national climate plans overlook the ocean economy. Without rapid reform, climate change could cripple both marine sectors and global trade. Although the ocean economy accounts for 11% of global CO2 emissions, no comprehensive data system exists to track emissions across core sectors.

Coastal and marine tourism alone contribute 4% of emissions globally, but data remains inconsistent. While shipping, offshore oil, and fisheries are better documented, other sectors like ports and shipbuilding are largely absent from international carbon assessments.

Expanding the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Ocean Trade Database and FAO fishery statistics could address critical data gaps.