Apple’s budget MacBook likely to debut in March

Apple is expected to unveil a budget MacBook in March 2026, but surging memory and battery costs may force higher pricing, potentially impacting sales volumes despite strong shipment forecasts.

Apple is expected to host a product launch event in March 2026, with a long-rumored budget MacBook set to headline the lineup. According to supply chain sources, volume shipments are scheduled to begin the same month, with key components already delivered since late 2025.

However, rising costs across critical components—particularly memory and batteries—are making it increasingly difficult for Apple to keep the device truly affordable. Industry observers warn that higher prices could limit shipment volumes and dampen demand.

Production delayed, familiar partners onboard

Mass production of the budget MacBook was initially planned for late 2025 but has been delayed to the first quarter of 2026, with volume ramp-up expected in March. Quanta Computer is expected to serve as the primary assembler, while Foxconn may join production later.

Supply chain estimates suggest Apple could ship 15–16 million units over two years, with more than 8 million units potentially shipped in the first year alone. Some analysts, however, believe these projections may be overly optimistic given cost pressures and pricing sensitivity in the entry-level segment.

Memory prices surge

Memory prices have risen sharply over the past year, multiplying several times. While some PC brands had hoped that increased output from Chinese suppliers would ease shortages, those suppliers are prioritizing domestic brands and are already operating at full capacity.

Apple, along with Samsung Electronics, was previously viewed as relatively insulated from memory price inflation. That assumption has changed. During a recent earnings call, Apple CEO Tim Cook said the impact in early 2026 would be limited, but cautioned that cost pressures would become more pronounced from the second quarter onward.

Battery costs add further strain

Battery costs are also climbing. Manufacturers report that rising cobalt prices have pushed battery module costs significantly higher, with an additional 10–15% increase recorded in February alone. International cobalt prices have surged 161% year on year following an export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, a key supplier.

How affordable will it be?

Early speculation suggested a starting price of US$599, similar to the historic low seen for the M1 MacBook Air. Current estimates, however, place the budget MacBook between US$699 and US$749.

For comparison, Apple’s lowest-priced MacBook Air with an M4 chip starts at US$999, or US$899 with an education discount. Pricing decisions for the budget MacBook could therefore impact the broader MacBook Air lineup, where positioning overlaps.

Apple set to outperform rivals

Despite these challenges, Apple is expected to outperform competitors. According to DIGITIMES Research analyst Henry Chang, Apple’s total MacBook shipments could reach 21 million units in 2026, up 2.16% from 2025.

In the first quarter of 2026, Apple’s MacBook shipments are forecast to grow both sequentially and annually, driven by models featuring new processors. This contrasts with the broader notebook market, which is expected to see double-digit declines over the same period.