Will Mamata dent BJP's Tripura bastion by wooing back erstwhile dissident?

Make no mistake. Mamata Banerjee's Mission Tripura'23 is neither a wild goose chase, nor is it chasing an over-ambitious dream, which is not in the realm of possibility. It is a risk, but a well calculated one.

It is a risk in the sense that if she goes all out and still fails to topple the Biplab Deb-led BJP government in the neighbouring state, her political opponents will certainly make fun out of her ambitions and aspirations. Her image may also suffer a jolt. But there will be no danger to her government in West Bengal in such an eventuality. But if she manages to wrest Tripura from the Saffron camp or even if she manages to emerge as the largest political opponent in the state with a decent number, it will be major boost not only to TMC, but to entire opposition unity and a huge, huge advantage before the next General elections due in 2024.

And the efforts that Mamata Banerjee and her party are putting in, in Tripura, are not without political reasoning. In the 2018 state assembly polls, BJP won 36 of the 59 seats that went to polls (Tripura assembly has 60 seats altogether), while the Left Front won 16 seats. But when it comes to percentage, the two warring camps were neck to neck. BJP got 43 per cent votes and Left Front got 42.7 per cent votes. Lot of waters have passed through the river since then. Incumbent Chief Minister Biplab is no longer as popular a face as he was then. Modi and Saffron Brigade's graphs are also somewhat on a downside (you like it or not!). The proof of the much-hyped 'double engine' theory is also missing.

Forget about all these. BJP had not been in existence in the erstwhile Red bastion till 2018, where fledgling TMC outfit just began to make a dent. BJP government was formed with breakaway individuals and groups of Congress and TMC. At least 7 of those former Congress leaders have already joined TMC (including former state BJP vice president Subol Bhowmik, who had earlier been state Congress vice president) and many more are believed to be in the fray. Former Congress leader and former minister in the Biplab Deb's government, Sudip Roy Burman, whose wings had been clipped two years ago, has met BJP national president JP Nadda and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, voicing their discontentment. Roy Burman, known to be close to TMC leader Mukul Roy (who has recently joined back TMC from BJP), has also reportedly spoken to Roy.

The Saffron Brigade is not sitting idle either. Kishor Barman, a staunch RSS man and joint general secretary of BJP's Bengal unit, has been sent to Agartala. Barman, who hails from Tripura, was instrumental in BJP's rise in North Bengal.

Over and above all these, women voters, who played a crucial role in the last Bengal polls, can be equally crucial in Tripura. Mamata and her party are understandably targeting this segment. Tripura, which had almost equal men (13.11 lakh) and women voters (12.68 lakh) in the last polls, saw larger women turnouts (91.40 per cent) compared to men's (87.42 per cent). Little wonder that the TMC poll managers are keen on cashing in on this.

With the personal image and charisma of the country's only woman Chief Minister, if TMC manages to woo back the erstwhile dissident Congress and/or dissident TMC leaders, it will be game over. ....Well, hold on a bit. BJP may start a new game by replacing the Chief Minister!