Tectonic Shift: Balochistan Slips From Pakistan’s Grasp As Surab Falls

While Bharat officially distances itself from supporting armed groups, it can shape an environment that fosters Balochistan's aspirations for freedom. A promise of development and independence from Prime Minister Modi, possibly hinted at in his Independence Day speech, could ignite a chain reaction culminating in Pakistan’s collapse and Balochistan’s liberation.

The political tectonic plates beneath Balochistan are shifting rapidly, slipping beyond Pakistan's control. Just two days ago, Surab, a city in Balochistan, fell to the "Baloch freedom fighters." Meanwhile, Rawalpindi was preoccupied with the coronation celebrations of Field Marshal Asif Munir at the Pakistan Military Academy in Kakul, just 130 kilometres from Quetta.

Various armed factions of the Baloch freedom movement, including the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Baloch Republican Army (BRA), Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), and the Bugti Militia, appear to be coordinating their military actions across the region. Executing complex operations—from train hijackings to the capture of Surab—within a few months apart, requires grassroots support, ample resources, and, most critically, a unified national movement with citizens aligned toward the common goal of freedom.

The catalyst energising the Baloch liberation fighters is state-sponsored brutality, including enforced disappearances, illegal detentions, and blatant human rights violations against women, children, and youth. The Pakistan military's use of extreme force, such as airstrikes and bombings, targeted civilians in regions like Dera Bugti and Kohlu.

Thus, whether New Delhi should provide moral and political support—reminiscent of the backing extended during Bangladesh’s liberation struggle in the 1970s—is no longer just a question. It has become both a demand raised from within Bharat and a request from across Balochistan. New Delhi has compelling reasons to support the aspirations of the Baloch people, especially as Rawalpindi’s strategy of employing terrorism as a state instrument to destabilize Bharat warrants a proportional and comparable response.

The Attack Doval

warned of

In 2015, Bharat's National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, warned during a speech at the Vivekananda International Foundation: "You do one more Mumbai, and you will lose Balochistan." It appears that the Pahalgam attack was that tipping point.

On April 22, 2025, terrorists brutally killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam, targeting them based on identity and faith. This heinous act aimed to provoke the majority of Hindus into retaliatory actions against minority Muslims. The terrorists' message to survivors was clear: "Go and tell Modi." Such provocations were designed to compel Prime Minister Modi into military action against Pakistan, while the enemies within Bharat would exploit the situation to incite communal unrest. Pahalgam was not just an attack on innocent lives; it was an assault on Bharat's core values. In response, New Delhi is compelled to launch multi-dimensional warfare against its arch-enemy, targeting Pakistan's territorial integrity.

Baloch Game Plan: Let Blood Be the Holding Cost

Baloch fighters are poised to escalate the cost of Pakistan's occupation, both monetarily and in human terms. Strategic targets, such as key installations and bridges connecting Balochistan to the rest of Pakistan, are vulnerable. In this ongoing conflict, while Baloch fighters may suffer casualties, Pakistan faces losses in infrastructure, troop morale, and financial stability, especially as it continues to borrow heavily from international sources. The situation mirrors Britain's post-World War II predicament, where financial constraints and growing dissent led to Bharat's independence. Similarly, Pakistan's economic woes, international isolation, and internal dissent could precipitate a collapse.

Instigating rebellion among Baloch armed forces

The next strategic move could involve encouraging rebellion among Baloch personnel within Pakistan's military and other uniformed forces. The Baloch Regiment, comprising 27 battalions, is a significant component of the Pakistan Army. Additionally, the Frontier Corps Balochistan (South), including units like the Taftan Rifles, plays a crucial role in the region's security apparatus. Should these forces align with the Baloch nationalist cause, Pakistan would face a severe internal crisis, losing trained soldiers, equipment, and the ability to defend its borders, leading to a nationwide morale collapse.

Bharat setting the sarrative

Since Prime Minister Modi's 2016 Independence Day speech, where he highlighted the plight of Balochistan, there has been a significant movement within Bharat to keep the issue at the forefront. Former diplomats, media houses, geopolitical analysts, and digital warriors have consistently brought Balochistan into daily discourse, especially after the Pahalgam attack, which served as a catalyst for renewed focus.

What beyond narrative?

While Bharat officially maintains that it does not support armed groups, it can create an environment conducive to Balochistan's struggle for freedom. Bharat can play a supportive role by promising development and a new dawn for an independent Balochistan, and this could be hinted at by Prime Minister Modi, perhaps during the Independence Day address on August 15, 2025. Such a statement could trigger a chain reaction leading to Pakistan's disintegration and Balochistan's liberation.

Keep the eastern front hot

Operation Sindoor forced Pakistan to redeploy troops from its western front to the eastern front facing Bharat. This shift reduced pressure on Baloch fighters, allowing them to operate more freely. By maintaining military pressure on the eastern front, New Delhi ensures that Pakistan remains stretched thin, benefiting the Baloch cause.

Former diplomats as

mentors

The Balochistan movement, led by representatives like Mehran Marri, a prominent figure in the Balochistan freedom movement and representative at the United Nations and European Union, can benefit from mentorship by former diplomats. Guidance on presenting their case globally, emphasizing Balochistan's potential contributions in terms of culture, secularism, strategic location, and natural resources, can bolster their legitimacy and support. In the meantime, Bharat's digital warriors continue to keep Balochistan at the top of the agenda through social media channels, ensuring that the narrative remains alive and influential.

Time will tell the future of Balochistan and its people, but for now, as Mehran Marri stated in an interview with the media, the Baloch Liberation Army's takeover of Surab city serves as a 'token gesture,' demonstrating to the world that Balochistan 'can, and by choice, take control of its territories and that Pakistan is fast losing its writ across Balochistan.'

(The author is Founder of My Startup TV)