Peoples Pulse report: A keen contest on cards between BJP, Cong in MP
Narrow margins from the previous election underscore that even a marginal swing of 1-2% could be decisive, says Madhya Pradesh Mood Report-2023
The imminent electoral battle in Madhya Pradesh is poised on a knife-edge, with historical data from the 2018 elections showing the major political contenders, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress, locked in a near-even vote share. The narrow margins from the previous election underscore that even a marginal swing of 1-2 per cent could be decisive in surpassing the majority threshold, says a research report by the Hyderabad-based Peoples Pulse and Datalok.in
According to their report titled Madhya Pradesh Mood Report-2023, the BJP faces the challenge of needing a 2 per cent swing in its favour to maintain its majority, while the Congress requires a mere one percent shift to potentially turn the tide in their direction. If Congress can elevate its vote share from 41 to 42 per cent in the upcoming elections, while the BJP’s share diminishes to 40 per cent, projections indicate that Congress could secure approximately 130 seats, with more seats possible should their momentum increase.
The Other Backward Classes (OBCs) constitute about 45 per cent of the State’s population. They have emerged as a decisive electoral force. Historically governed by the Congress, with upper-caste Chief Ministers at the helm until 2003, MP experienced a political shift when the BJP rose to power with leaders from various OBC communities. The BJP’s unwavering support base, consistently above 39 percent since the 1990s, is credited to the robust backing from these OBC groups.
However, the landscape is complicated by a discernible undercurrent of anti-incumbency, raising questions about its conversion into actual votes and the extent of such a shift. The stakes are undeniably high, and the political climate suggests that the electorate’s sentiment could significantly influence the results. The definitive answer to who will triumph in Madhya Pradesh rests on the choice of the voters, which will be locked on November 17.
The close contest, characterised by the narrow vote share gap and the potential for minor swings to have major implications, ensures that the outcome, while uncertain, will have aclear and lasting impact on the State’s political future.