Bharat's Afghan gambit: One move, three strategic gains

When Taliban's Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi stood before the press in New Delhi, speaking calmly in Urdu, mixing Pashto and Hindi phrases, and answering without notes or translators, it was a moment that stood in stark contrast to Pakistan's political class, which often needs written talking points from General Asim Munir or the blessings of the military establishment before speaking

In a striking display of diplomatic finesse, Bharat has once again demonstrated its ability to pull off a geopolitical manoeuvre that few would have dared attempt.

By engaging with the Taliban leadership, New Delhi showed how quiet, ground-up diplomacy can achieve what intimidation or propaganda never could. This geopolitical move, timed amid shifting regional equations and Pakistan's deepening internal chaos, underscores Bharat's emergence as a mature power that is ready to shape outcomes, not merely react to them.

When Taliban's Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Muttaqi stood before the press in New Delhi, speaking calmly in Urdu, mixing Pashto and Hindi phrases, and answering without notes or translators, it was a moment that stood in stark contrast to Pakistan's political class, which often needs written talking points from General Asim Munir or the blessings of the military establishment before speaking. If sovereignty were measured not by GDP or military might, but by the courage of leaders to speak their own mind, then it was clear that Kabul, not Islamabad, owned the moment.

In hosting Mawlawi Amir, Bharat faced the challenging task of balancing its geopolitical interests with concerns over human rights and gender equality. However, from a purely diplomatic standpoint, Bharat's engagement with the Taliban allows New Delhi to achieve three strategic objectives simultaneously: a diplomatic coup, the creation of geo-security uncertainty, and securing access to Central Asia's trade routes.

A diplomatic coup of the decade

New Delhi's engagement with the Taliban is a significant diplomatic achievement. For decades, Pakistan has sought to deny Bharat a foothold in Afghanistan, fearing that such a presence could threaten its strategic depth.

However, with the Taliban's return to power in 2021, this strategy has backfired. Instead of isolating Bharat, it has opened avenues for New Delhi to engage with people directly.

New Delhi used strategic silence on Taliban return and consistent humanitarian support, in the form of food, medicine, and emergency assistance, to dilute Pakistan's influence over the Taliban. When Mawlawi claimed that there had been no incidents of lawlessness since the Taliban's takeover, it's essential to recognise Bharat's role in contributing to this stability through people-centred initiatives that benefit at the grassroots.

Geo-security uncertainty

Just before Mawlawi Amir visited New Delhi, Pakistan carried out airstrikes on parts of Kabul, hitting key urban areas, and the Taliban government has responded to it by attacking Pakistan posts along the Afghan border.

Bharat's engagement with the Taliban creates geo-security uncertainty for Pakistan because Rawalpindi cannot be sure how New Delhi might use its influence with the Taliban, forcing Pakistan to spread resources and rethink military strategies.

One of the most significant strategic advantages Bharat holds is the perception of a potential two-front conflict. The fear that Bharat could arm and train the Taliban to launch an attack from the West, while New Delhi heats the eastern border, forces Pakistan to spread its military resources thin. This strategic ambiguity creates uncertainty and compels Pakistan to maintain an offensive posture on both fronts, thereby weakening its overall security.

As Amir noted, over the past four years, relations between the two countries have steadily deepened. The real question is whether, in the months ahead, New Delhi will supply Afghan forces with defensive military equipment to be deployedalong the Afghanistan–Pakistan border. If it does, that could deal a final blow to Pakistan's strategic depth doctrine.

Any support, even if limited to training and defensive equipment, would heighten geo security uncertainty inside Pakistan's establishment. It would force Rawalpindi to rethink deployments, create new strategic dilemmas, and raise the political temperature across a fragile frontier.

Central Asia's trade routes

The Taliban leader expressed his interest in enhancing trade relations with New Delhi, including utilising the Chabahar port route to connect Bharat with Afghanistan.

Chabahar Port, located on Iran's southeastern coast along the Gulf of Oman, serves as a pivotal maritime gateway for Bharat and Afghanistan, facilitating direct access to Central Asia. This port offers a strategic alternative to traditional routes that bypass Pakistan, thereby enhancing regional connectivity and economic collaboration.

Although not yet fully integrated, the existing transportation infrastructure between Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia provides a foundation for linking Chabahar Port to Central Asia via Afghanistan. Achieving this would require upgrades to key road corridors, including Zaranj–Delaram–Herat–Mazar-i-Sharif, as well as rail lines such as Chabahar–Zahedan and Hairatan–Mazar. These improvements would facilitate connections from Afghan cities like Mazar-i-Sharif to border points with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.

Bharat fair play to Afghanistan's wealth

Afghanistan's mineral wealth is a key area where Bharat can make a significant impact. The country is estimated to have mineral deposits worth up to $3 trillion, including vast reserves of copper, iron ore, lithium, and rare earth elements.

Bharat's involvement in Afghanistan's mining sector could be a game-changer. Unlike Western or Chinese companies, which often repatriate profits, Bharat will adopt a more inclusive approach, ensuring that both the Afghan people and the nation benefit from these resources. This could lead to job creation, infrastructure development, and a more stable economy.

In navigating its engagement with the Taliban, Bharat has walked a delicate line—aligning national interests with humanitarian concerns. While experts rightly highlight challenges around human rights, minority protections, and gender equality, New Delhi’s approach reflects a careful effort to balance geopolitical priorities with compassion and a commitment to the Afghan people.

(The author is Founder of My Startup TV)