Bharat Amid Unrest And Provocation: A Call For Strategic Vigilance!

Bharat stands at a crossroads, encircled by neighbours in turmoil. Pakistan’s desperate general, Bangladesh’s radical drift, and China’s economic woes create a volatile mix. A military misstep risks economic ruin, but strategic patience-leveraging covert operations, diplomacy, and internal resilience-can turn adversity into opportunity

There is a growing storm around Bharat that we can no longer afford to ignore. The situation is precarious—our immediate neighbourhood is undergoing unprecedented turmoil. From the crumbling economy and military unrest in Pakistan, to the violent radicalization of Bangladesh, to the tightening grip of an increasingly isolated and aggressive China, the threats are not just converging—they’re aligning. And in the middle of it all is Bharat, surrounded not just by geography, but by hostility.

Pakistan’s General Asim Munir and Bangladesh’s Muhammad Yunus are resorting to anti-Hindu rhetoric to shore up domestic support, while China’s Xi Jinping faces economic and internal pressures that could push him toward external aggression.

Pakistan’s desperate general and economic collapse

Let’s begin with Pakistan. It’s no longer a secret that both the Pakistani economy - which is in a freefall, and its military leadership are in deep distress. General Asim Munir, the current Army Chief, is showing visible signs of desperation and he faces a crisis of legitimacy as public discontent grows. Pakistan is a nation on the brink!

At the first Overseas Pakistanis Convention, which took place in Islamabad, at the Jinnah Convention Centre attended by over a thousand overseas Pakistanis from 60 countries, alongside government officials, military leadership, and business leaders - General Munir displayed visible signs of desperation in his speech. He invoked the two-nation theory, fanning anti-Hindu sentiment while urging Pakistanis to “narrate the story” of their nation’s creation to coming generations. A desperate general oscillating between hope and helplessness, begging for diaspora for support while rekindling hate. This was no mere rhetoric; it was a frantic attempt at salvaging the Pak military’s fading influence.

Bangladesh’s slide into radicalism

Moving eastward, Bangladesh under Muhammad Yunus has descended into chaos since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024. Yunus, backed by radical Islamists, has unleashed violence against Bangladeshi minorities, especially Hindus. According to reports from the Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council, over 1,000 cases of human rights violations against minorities were reported in a year. Hindu homes have been looted, temples desecrated, and women and children targeted.

The latest assassination of a Hindu leader, Bhabesh Chandra Roy, a Hindu leader in Bangladesh, sent ripples of fear across the already-threatened minority community. In a provocative statement, aimed at New Delhi, the Bangladeshi regime issued a statement on violence in West Bengal’s Murshidabad district, in an attempt to draw absurd parallels between communal incidents in Bharat and the systemic targeting of Hindus in Bangladesh. Yunus’s alignment with China adds another layer of provocation. During a state visit to Beijing, he described Bharat’s northeastern states as “landlocked” and offered Bangladesh as a “maritime gateway” for China to access the Bay of Bengal.

Make no mistake—Bangladesh under Yunus is drifting dangerously toward becoming a second Afghanistan. Radical elements are freely operating in the streets.

China’s economic woes and internal dissent

In the northeast, China’s economic juggernaut is faltering. The dragon seems to be breathing smoke, not fire. Ever since the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent global backlash, China has found itself in a slow but steady economic decline. The recent tariff war initiated under President Trump continues to hurt its exports. Videos of empty halls at the biannual Canton Fair, China’s largest export trade event, speak volumes. American and European buyers are staying away. And while exhibitors show up, buyers don’t. Social media platforms like TikTok reflect public despair over job losses and economic stagnation. President Xi Jinping, despite purging dissent among generals, party officials, and business leaders, faces growing internal criticism for his leadership style. More alarmingly, internal purges are intensifying. President Xi Jinping is cracking down on anyone who questions his authority. Xi is clearly feeling the pressure—economically, diplomatically, and politically. And when leaders feel cornered, they act out. This unrest could push Xi to externalise his problems, as China has done historically.

So here we are: three neighbours in crisis, with hostility and provocation as their only common agenda. This trio of instability—Pakistan, Bangladesh, and China—is dangerous not just because of what they’re doing, but because of what they’ve done before.

Historical precedents and the three-front threat

History reminds us that in 1962 and 1965, both China and Pakistan launched offensives against Bharat during times of internal unrest in their respective countries.

In 1962, China’s invasion of Bharat coincided with Mao’s need to deflect from domestic failures. Pakistan’s 1965 war followed a similar logic, with Ayub Khan seeking to unify a fractured nation. Today, the simultaneous unrest in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and China raises the spectre of a two- or three-front conflict. Military analysts have long warned of this scenario, and current provocations bring it closer to reality. The strategy is old but effective: distract the domestic population with war. Rally the nation against a common enemy.

So, what should Bharat do- strategic dilemma!

New Delhi faces a strategic dilemma: how to respond without triggering a costly conflict? A military intervention in Bangladesh, despite the provocations and humanitarian crisis, is not a simple option. Any such step would play directly into the hands of China and Pakistan, who are waiting for New Delhi to make the first move. A military conflict would drain Bharat’s resources and disrupt our economic trajectory—impacting markets, industries, and investor confidence.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and Houthi attacks on shipping lanes demonstrate how smaller forces, armed with cheap drones, can inflict outsized damage. China’s ability to supply low-cost drones to Bangladesh via Pakistan poses a real threat to Bharat’s military and economic assets. Yet, inaction is not an option..

The path forward: Strategic implosion

The optimal strategy is to foster implosion from within Pakistan and Bangladesh, neutralising threats without direct military engagement. Bharat’s intelligence agencies, with their experience and political backing, can amplify internal dissent in both nations. The stakes are high, but so is Bharat’s resolve. China must be contained by denying it a geopolitical foothold in the region through thoughtful diplomacy, geoeconomic strategies, and military manoeuvring, as New Delhi has effectively demonstrated in Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives.

The dragon is bleeding. The crescent is collapsing. And the new caliphate next door is taking shape. Bharat must stay vigilant, prepared, and united. Because if there’s one lesson from history—it is that when your neighbours are burning, your house is already under threat.