Urban floods, rural mindsets: India’s costly disaster gamble

Azadi Ka Amrit Mahotsav, the celebrations of the 75th anniversary of the country’s independence, have only recently concluded. In retrospect, it can be said that there is as much to cherish, in terms of past successes, as there is to fear by way of the challenges ahead. One thing is certain. This is no time for the country to rest on her oars. Much remains to be done.

Importantly, preservation of the fruits of development must take precedence over all fresh initiatives. Effective management of disasters is one such concern. The country can’t remain fatalistically resigned to the havoc wrought by natural calamities, neutralizing, the fruits development activities literally instantaneously.

The World Bank has estimated that India loses up to two per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 12 per cent of central government revenues annually on account of disasters. The study also concludes that a dollar spent on prevention/mitigation can save up to ten.

One deeply disturbing disaster in the country is that of urban flooding. India’s urban population in the country is estimated to cross 600 million by the year 2021. The measures to be taken by the private and the public agencies, as well as the CBOs in managing the DM continuum in urban disasters are at sharp variance with those that suffice in rural areas.

Disasters such as flooding and earth quakes which impact urban are as naturally cause much more damage on account of the congested built environment, especially infrastructure and heavy population. The management of disasters in the urban areas is an urgent, and important, imperative, both in terms of enhancing the levels of preparedness and increasing the pace and quality of rescue, relief and rehabilitation measures.

While this columnist, as a member of the NDMA, was the head of the team, which prepared the authorities guidelines on the management of floods in the country, a colleague member, Dr M Shashidhar Reddy lead another team which prepared the guidelines on urban flooding. It covered extensively most of the causes leading to, the manner of presentation and the measures recommended in terms of the disaster continuum.

Pratham Misra and Nitin Bassi, Research Analyst and Fellow in the Council on Energy Environment and Water, respectively, in a recent article in ‘The Hindu’ titled “follow the rains, not the calendar to fight floods”, on the current flood situation in the cities of the country, observed that cities in India are often still designed for a climate that no longer exists.

They note that a single flood can cause loss up to Rs8,700 crore of rupees, pointing to unmanaged waste plastic-debris, and litter blocking drains, as some of the causes of urban flooding. Noting that those functions, regrettably, are usually handled by separate departments on different schedules, they recommend that storm water and sanitation departments must coordinate, especially during high – risk periods.

Rainfall alerts from the IMD should, they advise, automatically trigger joint sanitation drives and drain inspections invulnerable areas, a method that has paid rich dividends in Vijayawada City, for example. They also recommend that city administrations should update their intensity, duration, frequency, curves of rainfall, every 5 to 10 years to ensure that infrastructure keeps pace with evolving rainfall patterns.

The recent heavy rains, flash floods and landslides, in Himachal Pradesh state have causedloss of life, as well as property worth over Rs4,000 crore. So much have systems lost faith, in the central and state governments, that judicial intervention has become necessary.

A few days ago, the Supreme Court asked the state government for its plans for disaster management, climate change and tourism. In a suomotu case, it referred its earlier observation that “humans, not nature, are responsible for the phenomenon such as continuous landslides, collapsing of houses and buildings, subsidence of roads, etc.”

Haphazard human intervention is one of the key reasons for floods. Extensive deforestation and unbridled illegal construction only serve to exacerbate the situation. In this case all these factors played a role. The alteration in the course of river Mandakini magnified the impact. Defective mining policies of the state were also to blame.

A recent policy of the state government facilitating transfer of land parcels to the revenue department, previously belonging to the forestry department also hugely contributed to the disaster.

Despite the fact that the Earthquake Risk Map of India places 13 districts in Uttarakhand under seismic zone IV (severe intensity zone) and V (very severe intensity zone), several dams and roads had been constructed in violation of regulations in place and along fault lines.

It will be recalled that the state suffered similar devastation on account of the same reason earlier in 2013. Among the lessons learnt at that time were, environmental and social impact assessments must necessarily precede all construction activity, especially that relating to dams and hydropower project. Vulnerable areas need to be classified as “no-project zones.

Adequate measures need to be taken to protect and conserve rivers, riverbeds and flood plains, including aquatic biodiversity. Encroachment of riverbeds and floodplains should be strictly forbidden. Necessary regulations should urgently be put in place and vigorously enforced.

Flood PlainZoning Regulations must be put in place and operationalized at the earliest. Unsustainable mining activity should be totally banned. Blasting as part of development activity should not be allowed in specified areas in and around vulnerable spots.

At this point, it is necessary to appreciate what is meant by the vulnerability of a given area to a certain disaster. It can broadly be defined as

Vg = R x E.

R being the risk to a disaster, E a measure of the exposure - in terms of the impact and Vg the gross vulnerability.

Then, Vn = R x EP

Where Vn is the net vulnerability of P the area and the level of preparedness.

In 2009 Dr. Manmohan Singh, the then Prime Minister of India and Chairman of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), of which this columnist was a member, asked the members how prepared India was for disasters.

The Vice Chairman was a former Chief of Army Staff, and other members, including this columnist, comprised retired civil servants, an army doctor, a scientist, an academician and a political leader.

They synthesized intuitive assessments in the form of gut-feelings based on their experience, made back - of - the - envelope calculations and produced some ball - park numbers, and arrived at a consensual score of 29% for India in 2007, 47% in 2009 and a projection of 75% for 2012.

Even as this piece is being written, for example, overnight torrential rain has wreaked havoc in Kolkata City, with multiple areas witnessing severe waterlogging across the city. Causing waterlogging, withtraffic, train and metro services severely impacted. At least ten people died and day-to-day life has beendisrupted.

Preparedness, lacking as it does the glamorous appeal of rescue and relief operations has always remained a neglected part of the disaster continuum, comprisingPrevention, Preparedness, Rescue, Relief and Rehabilitation.

This unfortunate psyche is illustrated by the fact that only two out of twenty nine states have enacted the Flood Plane Zoning Regulation (circulated in a draft form by GoI as early as in 1975, the exhortations of NDMA notwithstanding!

While discussing disasters and their management, one recalls the probably apocryphal story between about Benjamin Disraeli and William Gladstone, both formerly Prime Ministers of England. Disraeli reportedly said that if Gladstone fell into the Thames river, it would be a misfortune; however, if someone rescued him, it would be a calamity!

(The author was Chief Secretary in united AP)