A wind-down fossil fuel production essential to achieve renewable energy targets

The quest to reduce greenhouse emissions and the negative impact of climate change, while adhering to the Paris Agreement of restricting the temperature rise 1.5°C, involves not only to switching over to alternative energy uses but also calls for greater efforts to reduce dependence on coal, oil and natural gas and reducing their use by significant levels.

Ironically, till now discussions and deliberations have been only around adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change by increasing the use of alternative renewable energy like wind, solar and electric vehicles. This is ostensibly to have reductions in emission target by 2050 and thereby reach net zero emissions. However, there has not been much discussion on lowering the dependence on coal, oil and natural gas.

In the 2021 COP 26, the government spoke of a "phase down of unabated coal power and phase out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies" though it did not agree to address the production of all fossil fuels.

The UN Environment Programme, released its Production Gap Report 2023 ‘Phasing down or Phasing up’ on November 8. According to the report, ‘governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 by limiting the warming to 1.5°C.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said “We cannot address climate catastrophe without tackling its root cause: fossil fuel dependence. COP 28 must send a clear signal that the end of the fossil fuel age is inevitable. There must be credible commitments to ramp up renewables, while ensuring a just, equitable transition.”

July 2023 is likely to the world's hottest month in the last 120,000 years says a study by UN World Metrological Organization (WMO) and European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service.

This has led to record breaking heat waves in several spots around the world, notably in the US Southwest, Mexico and China and around the Mediterranean. The phenomenon is primarily linked to the overall rising global temperatures from the excess heat trapped in the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels.

Another factor is the ‘EL Nino’ effect, which developed in May this year and will remain till next April 2024. This can influence weather patterns and increase the temperature both on land and in oceans, according to a November 8 update of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). EL Nino occurs every two to seven years and topically last nine to twelve months.

"Extreme events such as heat waves, drought, wildfires, heavy rain and floods will be enhanced in some regions, with major impacts. WMO is committed to taking measures to save lives and minimise losses," said Prof. Taalas.

According to Inger Anderson, Executive Director, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) "Climate change has battered the world's most vulnerable regions for years, Now, wealthier nations and communities are taking hits as heat waves, drought, wildfires and storms grow." According to Mans Nilson, Executive Director, Stockholm Environment Institute, "the recent global energy crisis and the worsening climate crisis have a common root: our excessive dependence on fossil fuels"

The ‘Production Gap Report 2023’ urges all governments to adopt near term and long-term reduction targets in fossil fuels production and simultaneously compliment other climate mitigation targets so as to reduce risks of stranded assets

Countries, which are committed to achieve zero emissions target, should have concrete plans to reduce coal, oil and gas production in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C. There must be clear, specific and transparent plans, projections and support for fossil fuels production and how they align with national and international climate goals. The report has suggested that given the risks and uncertainties of carbon capture and storage and carbon dioxide removal, countries should aim for a near term total phase out of coal production and use by 2040 and a combined reduction in oil and natural gas production by 2050. The potential failure of these measures to develop at scale calls for an even more rapid global phase-out of all fossil fuels.

As per the report, countries whose production, import, export and net supply for domestic consumption of primary fossil fuels in exajoules (EJ) in 2021 are China (135.4), US (76.5), Russian Federation (36.9), India (29.8). The report provides data for 20 countries and states that seventeen of them pledged to achieve net zero emissions. Yet at the same time most continue to promote, subsidize, invest in and plan to expand fossil fuel production destined for domestic use and or export.

The report has given country-wise analysis as to production and use of oil, coal and gas and gas given rank of a country in and share of global production and net trade status. As far as India is concerned, coal is 2nd with 7.6%, oil 24th 0.8% and Gas 22nd (0.8%) and net trade status importer and share of GDP from oil and gas production 2%. The report states that while India has made significant investments and set ambitious targets for renewal energy, there is a need for government policies to support a managed wind-down Fossil fuel production.

It is therefore imperative for every country to draw plans for energy transition projects by going for renewable energy on a greater scale and at the same to achieve the committed zero emissions target by the agreed to time schedule, there is an urgent need to also have a definite, specific and clear cut plans to reduce dependence on coal, oil and gas usage. Such a collective action by all member countries to Paris Agreement and subsequent agreement ensure that the global temperature is restricted to 1.5°C. The adverse impact of climate change is already happening. Human lives are in danger in climate change vulnerable areas, physical loss and economic loss which make it difficult for countries to recoup. These climate sensitive health risks are disproportionately felt by the most vulnerable and disadvantaged, including women, children, ethnic minorities, poor communities, migrants and displaced persons, according to a October 12 report of World Health Organization. The adaptation plans of the countries should have special plans and programs to reduce the risks of climate change on these vulnerable groups. Climate change is happening and the need is reduce fossil fuels burning and shifting to alternative renewable energy. This will help the present and future generations to be free from pain and suffering.