India–Russia Summit Today: Putin Meets Modi Amid Global Tensions

Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, is arriving in India today for a two-day visit which will feature a private dinner with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the 23rd India-Russia Summit talks on Thursday. The visit comes as the New Delhi administration is still managing tension with Washington over the continuous importation of Russian oil.

According to market strategists, the visit is not merely a routine diplomatic action; they see it as a situation where economic and geopolitical factors are unusually so high that they cannot be overlooked.

Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS Wealth Street, referred to the long-standing India-Russia partnership as having undergone yet another shift with ever-changing global alliances, tightening sanctions and an ongoing strain in the supply chains. She pointed out that the talks in New Delhi could be a turning point where cooperation in energy, defense, and trade could be an alternative.

Sanchita further stated that a stronger commitment from Russia to buy Indian goods could help India reduce its $60 billion trade deficit and also create new markets for exporting pharmaceuticals, machinery, engineering goods, consumer items, and agricultural produce.

In the fiscal year 2024-2025, bilateral trade is expected to rise to around $68 billion, mainly due to the cheap Russian oil. Officials believe that the new agreements will lead to an immediate increase of that amount to $100 to $150 billion within the next few years.

Akshat Garg, who is the Head of Research and Product at Choice Wealth, commented that global investors see Putin's trip as a concurrent negotiation of the risk, supply flows, and economic buffers, and not as merely a ceremonial engagement.

Garg remarked that traders will be on the lookout for announcements that either reduce the trade imbalance or imply changes in defence production and energy security. Additionally, he stated that a gradual upgrade of present contracts could lead to the stabilization of the defence and energy sectors, while more profound strategic collaborations might change India’s economic relations with Eurasia and affect a larger group of stocks.

Sachdeva indicated that the markets will be watching closely for any mention of defence and energy agreements, principal trade routes, and the possible US reaction, which could briefly impact the rupee or increase geopolitical uncertainty.

In general, investors are counting on the visit to further the India–Russia relationship and make the economic openings market-sensitive.

Major themes to be monitored during Putin's India visit

Defence collaboration

The Indian defence industries will get the attention as the government of India keeps abhorring the Russian systems while contemplating the new missile-defense platforms, fighter jets, and joint production.

According to Sachdeva, major defense contracts could not only bolster India’s security but also positively affect stocks of the defense sector.

Discussions on rupee settlement

An extensive shift to trade done in rupees is bound to come up in discussion. The other reason behind this plan would be to cut down India's dollar dependence, and at the same time, the Indian government will be able to channel the flow of rupees from oil-ridden Moscow into Indian projects.

Oil and energy agreements for the long term

India's consumption of Russian crude oil has dropped to a three-year low, which has made it imperative to put the energy agreements at the top of the list. The new long-term supply routes would enable India to keep inflation under control and maintain a healthy balance of payments.