Bringing about Regional Stability beyond 2025

India’s diplomatic scene in 2025 is like a chess game, full of strategic moves and unexpected turns. With the world changing fast, India’s got to juggle a bunch of challenges and opportunities. From dealing with tricky neighbors to making sure its energy supplies are secure, India is trying to stay ahead. It’s all about finding the right balance between keeping old friends and making new ones, while also looking after its own interests. The country’s got its hands full, but with the right moves, it could come out on top.

In 2025, India finds itself amid a rapidly changing global scene. The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, along with shifting alliances in Europe, presents both opportunities and challenges. India must navigate these waters carefully, maintaining its traditional stance of non-alignment while engaging with emerging powers. Balancing these dynamics is crucial for India’s strategic positioning.

India’s neighborhood is experiencing significant political shifts, with Bangladesh and Nepal leading the charge. In Bangladesh, the political landscape is evolving as the country strengthens its ties with China and Pakistan, potentially sidelining India. Nepal, on the other hand, continues to lean towards China, with pro-China policies gaining traction. These changes pose a serious challenge to India’s influence in the region.

India's regional neighbours have witnessed unprecedented political turmoil in the last four to five years. From Afghanistan to Sri Lanka, then Bangladesh, and now Nepal, country-wide agitations brought drastic changes in power. The current crisis in Nepal, triggered by Gen-Z demonstrations against an imposition of a ban on social media, has compelled Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli to step down.

On August 15, 2021, the Taliban marched into Kabul. President Ashraf Ghani left the nation, and the Taliban took over the presidential palace. Afghanistan is still stuck in an economic crisis, with Taliban rule firmly established.

One year later, in 2022, a year after the turmoil in Afghanistan, Sri Lanka's economic crisis deepened, prompting huge demonstrations that became an insurrection across the entire country. Protesters burned properties, and stormed the presidential palace and parliament. Videos even circulated of protesters doing a splash in the presidential palace pool. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa was compelled to escape the nation to the Maldives during the dead of night.

The foreign debt of the Rajapaksa government had mounted vastly between 2019-2022, fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic and the downturn in the tourism sector. Prices of basic commodities such as bread became astronomical. Fuel and medicine shortages caused widespread black marketing by early 2022. Millions marched through the streets of Colombo in March-April, and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned in May 2022. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa escaped in July and officially resigned in September 2022.

In 2024, the Sheikh Hasina government was brought down by a student movement, referred to as the 'Second War of Independence.'

On 5th August, 2024, Sheikh Hasina stepped down as Prime Minister and took shelter in India. Interim government was announced by Army Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman. Nobel winner Muhammad Yunus was named chief advisor, who is now in charge of the nation. Protesters even destroyed a statue of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the patriarch of Bangladesh, during the protest. General elections are yet to be conducted after Hasina's departure, and the nation is still unstable.

Political instability also bedevils Pakistan, with perpetual protests by the fan base of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was removed through a no-confidence vote. Organizations such as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have mounted attacks in North-West Pakistan and Balochistan, often using drone bombs. Organizations such as separatist Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), which has unilaterally declared Balochistan an independent state, also threaten the Shehbaz administration.

In Maldives, the politics changed after the presidential election victory of Mohammed Muizzu in November 2023. He ran an 'India-out' campaign based on nationalist rhetoric, pushing aside former President Abdulla Yameen. Muizzu's pro-China policies have put India on edge. At home, his administration is more conservative than the previous one.

In Myanmar, the military ousted democratic icon Aung San Suu Kyi from office by force in 2021. The military misjudged the reaction of the people to the coup, and they responded with large pro-democracy protests.

Myanmar's internal conflict has caused a serious refugee crisis. Since the coup, more than 65,000 refugees, predominantly Chin ethnic group, have crossed into India. The coup has claimed more than three thousand lives and driven about 1.7 crore (17 million) people to the edge of starvation.