Bengal battle: Too close, too confusing

Social media and traditional media platforms are flush with opinion poll outcomes for the forthcoming state legislative assembly election in Bengal slated for April 23 and April 29 (the actual poll results are scheduled to be announced on May 4).

Storms over a cuppa are also witnessed surrounding these opinion poll outcomes. Interestingly, many leading platforms and organisations have consciously stayed away from such opinion polls on grounds that these are losing credibility and trustworthiness as they often fail to come close to actual outcomes. Nevertheless, many opinion polls have surfaced this time as well.

The numbers, interpretations and results vary widely. There are some who have predicted a fourth-time-in-a-row win for the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamul Congress, while others signal a clear change and the Saffron Brigade's maiden entry into the TMC citadel. Indications of a neck-to-neck fight are also visible.

If there is anything common in these pre-poll surveys, it is that an overwhelming majority — nearly 49 per cent— prefers Mamata Banerjee as the state's continuing Chief Minister. Even surveys signalling a BJP triumph suggest the same. The next name comes a distant second with 24-32 per cent.

This is confusing and rather strange. If these surveys are true, do these mean that a large section of this 49 per cent would vote for a party that would ensure that Banerjee does not return to power? If this section exercises its franchise in line with its chief ministerial choice, Mamata Banerjee’s return would be a matter of time.

Beyond surveys, BJP’s strategy of dividing Mamata’s Muslim votebank through Humayun Kabir, a TMC turncoat, appears to be faltering after a sting operation where Kabir is seen admitting he was promised Rs 1,000 crore and a Deputy Chief Minister’s post to influence minority voters, with Rs 300 crore already received as advance.

Kabir later admitted the video’s genuineness after initially calling it AI-generated. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah are going wholehog trying to brand this as AI-generated video.

However, the damage appears to have been done. Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, an ally of Kabir’s party, has severed ties. A majority of Kabir’s party candidates have withdrawn and switched camps. If Muslim voters consolidate behind the TMC, it will be ‘Advantage Mamata’. Other minorities like Christians and Buddhists are already with her. The Punjabi population in some pockets is also upset with the BJP following remarks by Suvendu Adhikary branding Punjabis as Khalistanis.

Besides, the BJP is yet to project a clear “face” in the state. While this may not matter elsewhere, in Bengal it can be a drawback. Many candidates lack local connect, and several star campaigners are from outside the state.

The BJP has struggled to emerge as a party of Bengal and for Bengalis, which remains a concern. From the TMC’s side, controlling sabotage and internal dissent will be crucial, as that alone could upset its applecart.