Volatility surge, OI battle: Nifty’s 1,000-pt resistance jump ushers in uncharted play

The latest options data on NSE represents a bearish-to-neutral positioning by institutional participants at extreme OTM levels. The resistance level rose by 1,000 points to 27,000CE and the support level fell 300 points to 25,000PE and it’s indicating wider trading range for the week ahead.

The 27,000CE has highest Call OI followed by 26,500/ 26,100/ 26,700/ 26,300/ 26,900/ 27,100/ 26,50/ 27,500 strikes, while 27,000/ 26,300/ 26,100/ 26,200/ 26,800/ 27,500 strikes recorded heavy build-up of Call OI. And no Call OTM strike witnessed OI fall, while deep Call ITM strikes from 25,600CE inwards posted minute OI decline.

The 27,000CE level acts as a major psychological and technical resistance. Call writers are comfortable collecting premiums here, expecting the index to remain below this level. Hence, with Nifty currently at 25,910.05 points, the 27,000 strike is approximately 1,090 points away (4.2% OTM). The very low premium of Rs2 reflects the low probability of Nifty reaching this level by November 26 expiry.

The substantial OI addition combined with declining premium (-Rs1.00) indicates aggressive Call writing, with traders betting that Nifty will stay well below 27,000 by expiry.

Coming to the Put side, the maximum Put OI is seen at 25,000PE followed by 25,500/ 24,500/ 25,900/ 25,300/ 25,700/ 25,750/ 25,850 strikes hold reasonable to major addition of Put OI. Further, 25,700/25,600/ 25,300/ 25,800/ 25,000 strikes witnessed moderate Put OI addition. Several deep Put OTM strikes had marginal Put OI drop and Put ITM strikes too witnessed minute OI decline.

Very high volume reflects active hedging and speculation at this round number. Low premium (Rs3.10) shows market confidence that Nifty will stay above 25,000 strike. Put writers are comfortable collecting premiums, betting on support holding.

Dhirender Singh Bisht, Associate Vice-President (Technical Research – Equity), SMC Global Securities Ltd, said: “In the derivatives segment, the highest Call Open Interest for Nifty was observed at the 26,000 and 26,100 strike levels whereas notable Put Open Interest was concentrated at the 25,800 and 25,700 strikes.”

Major OI build-up at ATM and OTM Call strikes is pointing to limited upside. No major Put base indicating weakness may extend further. Call base has strengthened at 27,000CE strike should act as key resistance zone. So, any meaningful short covering should be expected only beyond 25,700 level.

“Nifty closed with a gain of over 1.5 per cent, while Bank Nifty advanced by more than one per cent. The key factors driving the market last week included the Bihar Assembly election results and optimism surrounding the upcoming earnings season. Additionally, the reopening in the US supported sentiment in Indian markets, with notable buying interest observed in IT stocks. Sector-wise, defence, IT, and pharma led the gains, whereas media and realty sectors ended the week in the red,” added Bisht.

For the week ended November 14, 2025, BSE Sensex closed at 84,562.78 points, a net recovery of 1,346.50 points or 1.61per cent, from the previous week’s (November 7) closing of 83,216.28 points. NSE Nifty too moved up by 417.75 points or 1.63 per cent to 25,910.05 points from 25,492.30 points a week ago.

Bisht forecasts: “Overall, the trend for Nifty remains bullish, as it continues to trade above its long-term exponential moving averages. The index has formed a higher-high and higher-low pattern on the daily chart, further confirming the positive momentum. For Nifty futures, the rollover zone at 26,000-26,050 is expected to act as a key resistance level in the upcoming sessions. A sustained move above this zone could lead to further upside. For the upcoming sessions in Nifty spot, resistance is placed at 26,200 while support can be seen at 25,500.”

India VIX fell 1.85 per cent to 11.94 level. Implied Volatility (IV) surged over 100 per cent on highest Put base and almost 90 per cent on highest Call OI strike. Call IV surge is indicating increased uncertainty about upside as traders expecting volatility. It also points to short covering, buying calls to hedge. Rising Put IV reflects downside tail risk premium as traders willing to pay more for crash protection. Market participants fear sharp downside moves more than equivalent upside moves.

“Implied Volatility for Nifty’s Call options settled at 10.55 per cent, while Put options concluded at 11.23 per cent. The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, concluded the week at 12.16 per cent. The Put-Call Ratio of Open Interest stood at 0.98 for the week,” remarked Bisht.

Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty, NSE’s banking index, closed the week at 58,517.55 points, further up 64.075 points or 1.10 per cent from the previous week’s closing of 57,876.80 points. “For Bank Nifty, significant Call Open Interest was seen at the 58,500 strike, with substantial Put OI at the 58,500 strike,” said Bisht.