Trade Setup for April 21: Nifty trades near the upper Bollinger Band

As markets gear up for a fresh trading week, the Nifty 50 continues to show bullish momentum, backed by a solid performance in banking stocks and declining volatility. Experts suggest the index could soon test the crucial 24,000 mark, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the September 2024 high to the April 2025 low. A decisive break above this could open the way toward the 24,200 zone, while 23,650–23,550 is expected to serve as a strong support area in the near term.

Market Overview

The Nifty 50 closed last week on a strong note, climbing 1.77% on April 17, driven primarily by banking sector gains. The index ended above the midline of the Bollinger Bands on a weekly chart, which, along with favorable momentum indicators, suggests ongoing bullish sentiment. The India VIX—a measure of market volatility—fell significantly, reinforcing the market's strength.

Here are 15 key data points to watch for April 21:

1. Nifty 50 – Key Technical Levels

Last Close: 23,852

Resistance Levels: 23,893 | 24,029 | 24,248

Support Levels: 23,455 | 23,320 | 23,101

Special Chart Formation:

A large bullish candle formed on the daily chart with above-average volumes. The Nifty now trades near the upper Bollinger Band and remains above all critical moving averages.

RSI: 62.57 (above 60 – bullish)

MACD: Positive crossover with a strong histogram

2. Bank Nifty – Key Technical Levels

Last Close: 54,290

Resistance Levels: 54,433 | 54,745 | 55,250

Support Levels: 53,422 | 53,110 | 52,605

Fibonacci Resistance: 56,307 | 58,648

Fibonacci Support: 52,825 | 51,846

Special Chart Formation:

Bank Nifty outpaced Nifty 50, jumping 2.21% and closing above the upper Bollinger Band. Volume remained above average for a third straight session.

Strong bullish candle on daily timeframe

RSI and MACD indicate continued positive momentum

3. Nifty Call Option Data

Highest Open Interest (OI): 25,000 strike (79.54 lakh contracts) – Key resistance

Followed by: 24,000 (55.9L) and 24,500 (55.22L)

Top Call Writing:

25,000 (29.84L added)

24,500 (20.01L added)

24,200 (15.26L added)

Call Unwinding:

23,500 (5.25L shed)

23,700 and 23,300 also saw notable unwinding

4. Nifty Put Option Data

Max Put OI: 23,500 strike (83.91L) – Major support

Followed by: 23,000 (69.77L), 23,300 (45.04L)

Top Put Writing:

23,500 (36.49L added)

23,800 (17.12L), 23,600 (17L)

Put Unwinding:

22,900 (1.55L shed)

25,000 and 22,950 saw smaller drops

5. Bank Nifty Call Option Data

Max OI: 55,000 strike (17.56L) – Key resistance

Followed by: 53,000 (10.42L), 54,000 (10.04L)

Top Call Writing:

55,500 (3.76L)

55,000 (2.74L), 54,300 (2.63L)

Call Unwinding:

53,000 (3.91L shed)

54,000 and 52,000 also saw declines

6. Bank Nifty Put Option Data

Max Put OI: 52,000 strike (13.01L) – Strong support

Followed by: 53,000 (11.47L), 52,500 (9.79L)

Top Put Writing:

54,000 (5.66L added)

53,500 (4.71L), 53,300 (2.3L)

Put Unwinding:

52,400 (87,030 contracts shed)

52,700 and 52,100 also saw minor reductions

7. Funds Flow

(Refer to chart for daily institutional flows in equities/F&O.)

8. Put-Call Ratio (PCR)

Current PCR: 1.17 (up from 0.98)

A rising PCR above 1 signals stronger bullish sentiment, as more Puts are being sold compared to Calls.

9. India VIX

Current Level: 15.47 (down 2.51%)

The sustained drop in volatility over four sessions bodes well for bulls, suggesting reduced risk perception.

10. Long Build-up (111 Stocks)

An increase in both price and OI suggests accumulation. Watch these for breakout trades.

11. Long Unwinding (14 Stocks)

Decline in price and OI suggests profit booking in these counters.

12. Short Build-up (46 Stocks)

Falling prices with rising OI indicate bearish bets. Avoid or trade cautiously.

13. Short Covering (51 Stocks)

Price increase with falling OI suggests short positions being covered. These may continue upward momentum.

14. High Delivery-Based Buying

Stocks with high delivery percentages indicate stronger investor interest versus speculative activity. These are potential long-term picks.

15. F&O Ban List

Added: Angel One

Retained: Hindustan Copper, IREDA, Manappuram Finance, NALCO

Removed: Birlasoft

Stocks under F&O ban have exceeded 95% of their market-wide position limit and are unavailable for new derivative contracts.

Disclaimer: Please consult a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.