Top Stocks to Buy Now | Samir Arora’s Bottom-Up Alpha Strategy for 2025

As crude oil prices surge amid rising geopolitical tensions, global markets remain resilient. Veteran fund manager Samir Arora shares his strategic market outlook for 2025, highlighting the shift in capital flows, India’s evolving macro landscape, and investment opportunities in China. His core advice? Focus on bottom-up alpha in a market defined by caution and opportunity.

Crude Oil Prices Soar Amid Global Tensions

Crude oil surged 12% in just one week, largely driven by escalating tensions in West Asia. However, equity markets have remained largely steady. According to Samir Arora, years of exposure to geopolitical shocks have built investor immunity. In an interview with ET Now, he stated that unless crude supply via the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, this oil price shock may not last long. His strategy: “Wait and watch.”

Turning Bullish: Reallocation from US to Global Markets

Despite global uncertainties, Arora has turned very bullish on equities. He points to a strong trend of capital shifting away from US markets, which previously attracted over 70% of global equity flows. His own fund has cut US exposure drastically, targeting just 50%.

This structural reallocation, evident through rising investments in ex-US ETFs, could benefit emerging markets like India, offering long-term upside.

India Market Outlook: Recovery in Sight

India’s macroeconomic fundamentals are improving, with stable interest rates, moderating inflation, and controlled EMIs. Despite recent volatility, Arora believes Indian equities are poised for a 5–10% upside over the next year. He attributes this to a combination of:

• Foreign and domestic investor flows returning
• Improved corporate earnings
• General economic stability

This is not a euphoric rally, but a constructive phase for patient investors.

China: Underpriced Yet Promising

Samir Arora sees China as an emerging bright spot, especially in tech and consumer sectors. His fund has raised China exposure from 5% to 15%, betting on a cyclical recovery backed by:

• Strong retail sales
• Rebound in manufacturing
• Attractive valuations

He highlights quality stocks in tech, automotive, and travel sectors, noting that investor sentiment toward China is gradually improving.

IPOs & Market Valuations: No Structural Risk

While nearly 40% of IPOs are trading below their listing prices, Arora downplays concerns. He views this as normal market behavior, where overvalued issues self-correct.

India’s stock market now exceeds $5 trillion in size, and large block deals and promoter exits are expected. In fact, he humorously prefers overpriced IPOs, as they offer opportunities for relative outperformance by staying away.

Bottom-Up Alpha: Key to Outperformance

With broad market earnings growth plateauing, Arora stresses the need for bottom-up stock picking. He recommends:

• Targeting companies with 14–15% earnings growth
• Avoiding sectors facing disruption
• Focusing on resilient mid and small-cap names

This strategy helps navigate markets with limited index-level returns, allowing investors to generate alpha through differentiation.

Conclusion: Cautiously Optimistic Outlook

While a massive bull run may not be on the horizon, the Indian equity market stands on solid footing. With foreign selling reducing, domestic participation rising, and global capital reallocation in motion, the stage is set for moderate yet steady gains.

Fund managers like Samir Arora are once again diving deep into research, meeting company managements, and building bottom-up portfolios with confidence and caution.