Tata Steel Gets Third Bullish Rating in Five Days as Motilal Oswal Projects 19% Upside

Tata Steel Ltd. has received yet another vote of confidence from analysts, with Motilal Oswal upgrading the Tata Group stock to a “buy” rating from “neutral” and setting a revised price target of ₹210, implying a 19% potential upside from Monday’s closing level of ₹176.6.

This marks the third bullish call for Tata Steel in just five days. Earlier, Nomura initiated coverage on October 23 with a “buy” rating, while InCred Equities upgraded the stock to “add” from “reduce” on Monday, also revising its target price upward.

Strong Domestic Outlook and European Recovery

Motilal Oswal’s latest report highlights Tata Steel’s robust domestic demand outlook and a near breakeven performance in its European operations as key earnings drivers. The company is rapidly expanding its Indian capacity from 26.5 MTPA to 40 MTPA by FY2030, positioning itself to tap into India’s growing steel consumption.

India’s steel demand is projected to grow 8–10% annually between FY26 and FY27, supported by government policies, infrastructure spending, and strong industrial recovery, according to the brokerage. Domestic prices could also get a boost from the proposed 12% safeguard duty on flat steel products.

European Business Nears Turnaround

Tata Steel’s European business is showing signs of recovery, aided by cost optimisation and restructuring efforts. Losses in EBITDA have narrowed significantly—from $76 per tonne to just $8 per tonne in the first quarter—thanks to improved operational efficiency and lower energy costs.

With the shutdown of the UK blast furnace and ramp-up of Netherlands operations, Motilal Oswal expects the European EBITDA per tonne to reach $70 by FY2028, potentially lifting the consolidated EBITDA per tonne to ₹13,000, up from ₹8,376 currently.

Analyst Consensus

Despite the bullish tone from top brokerages, overall market sentiment remains mixed. Out of 36 analysts tracking Tata Steel, 25 recommend a “buy,” seven a “hold,” and four a “sell.” The consensus price targets, however, do not indicate any major upside.

Shares of Tata Steel closed 1.2% higher at ₹176.6 on Monday, extending their monthly gains to 4.5% and year-to-date rise to 30%.

“While near-term challenges persist due to global uncertainties, Tata Steel’s long-term outlook remains solid, supported by its Indian operations and improving European performance,” Motilal Oswal said in its note.