Stock Market Update: Futures Steady as Trump Clears Nvidia’s H200 Chip Sales to China

U.S. stock futures hovered near the flatline on Tuesday, even as Nvidia shares edged higher after President Donald Trump approved the sale of the company’s H200 chips to “approved customers” in China — a deal that grants 25% of sales revenue to the U.S. government. Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping “responded positively” to the agreement, marking a major win for Nvidia following months of trade negotiations.

Futures Hold Steady

• Dow Jones Industrial Average futures: Flat
• S&P 500 futures: Flat
• Nasdaq 100 futures: Flat

In Monday’s session, tech stocks led the market, with the sector being the only one in the S&P 500 to close in the green. Semiconductor stocks were the highlight:

Broadcom surged nearly 3%

Nvidia and Microsoft gained around 2%

This followed reports that Microsoft may work with Broadcom to design custom chips.

Market Eyes the Final Fed Meeting of 2025

Traders are now awaiting the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of the year, scheduled for Wednesday. Markets widely expect a 25 basis point rate cut, with CME’s FedWatch tool showing 89% probability — up significantly from last month.

Analysts say that beyond the cut itself, the Fed’s economic projections and comments from Chair Jerome Powell will heavily influence market direction heading into the end of the year.

Inflation Data and Economic Uncertainty

Last week’s softer-than-expected PCE data boosted stocks, helping major indexes log their second consecutive week of gains. But the Fed’s decision comes amid:

• Sticky inflation
• Unclear macroeconomic signals
• Delayed economic data due to the prolonged U.S. government shutdown
• Expectations of a new Fed chair

Market experts say the central bank must balance easing inflation risks without derailing economic stability as 2026 approaches.

Pre-Market Movers

Ares Management — Up 8%

Set to join the S&P 500, replacing Kellanova following its acquisition by Mars.

CVS — Up 3%

The company issued 2026 profit guidance above Wall Street expectations, signaling momentum in its turnaround strategy.

Toll Brothers — Down 4%

Posted weaker-than-expected quarterly results, missing analyst estimates.

Trump Ties Fed Chair Nomination to Rate Cuts

President Trump said his upcoming Fed Chair nominee must pledge to lower interest rates, confirming that rate cuts are now a “litmus test.”

Leading candidates include:

• Kevin Hassett (front-runner)
• Christopher Waller
• Michelle Bowman
• Kevin Warsh
• Rick Rieder

All have previously supported easier monetary policy.

AutoZone Shares Slip After Missing Estimates

AutoZone reported:

Earnings: $31.04 per share (below $32.51 expected)

Revenue: $4.63 billion (slightly below expectations)

Shares dropped more than 2%.

Home Depot Falls on Weak 2026 Guidance

Home Depot projects 0%–4% earnings growth for 2026, below analyst expectations of 5.2%. Shares slid over 1% pre-market.

Alerian MLP Index Near Breakout, Says Wolfe Research

The Alerian MLP Index, tracking energy infrastructure assets, has rallied for three months and is testing its summer high. Analysts suggest a potential breakout could push the index toward early-year highs.