Stock Market Update: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Steady Ahead of Fed Meeting

On Monday, US stock futures remained relatively unchanged, with the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of 2025 being the main focus of the week for investors.

Futures for the S&P 500 were extremely close to the zero line.

The Nasdaq 100 futures gained approximately 0.3% during the day after the fourth consecutive closing win.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures stayed mostly static.

As per CME FedWatch, the market expectations have shifted to an 88% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points at this week’s meeting from only 67% a month ago. The mild PCE inflation reading for September which was the least of the three inflation measures, encouraged risk-appetite and enabled the back-to-back weekly gains of S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.

However, analysts point out that the Fed is still divided on its approach, whether to control inflation or manage the labor market, hence making 2026 rate predictions a bit uncertain.

Key Economic Data & Earnings This Week

The market will be keeping an eye on the JOLTS report for October to reveal insights about the hiring trends, layoffs, and quitting of employees. The earnings releases are as follows:

Wednesday: Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE)

Thursday: Broadcom (AVGO) and Costco (COST)

Notable Corporate Moves

IBM to Acquire Confluent for $11 Billion: IBM plans on acquiring the data-streaming firm Confluent at $31 per share, which is the company’s share price. This will enhance IBM’s AI and cloud strategy. Confluent shares rose almost 30% in premarket trading while those of IBM saw a slight decline.

Berkshire Hathaway Shuffle: Todd Combs, referred to as Buffett's right hand in investing, is moving to JPMorgan and a shuffle at Geico is involved.

Market Movers & Premarket Trends

Carvana (CVNA): +8% after the announcement of the inclusion into S&P 500.

Marvell Technology (MRVL): -6% premarket after its exclusion from the S&P 500.

Rivian (RIVN): -3% premarket due to the recall of 35,000 vehicles.

Sector Insights

Yardeni, a research firm, says it is now time to underweight the Magnificent 7 tech stocks due to rising competition and pressure on margins. Instead, it would be wise to invest in financials, industrials, and healthcare.

Global Factors

China’s Trade Surplus Tops $1 Trillion: The rapidly growing exports to countries other than the US allowed China to have a trade surplus of over $1 trillion in the first eleven months of 2025. The exports to Southeast Asia and the EU increased while the shipments to the US decreased.

Crude Oil Prices Dip: Oil prices dropped by over 1% as traders expect a cut in the Fed rates and there are no positive developments in the peace talks in Ukraine.

Takeaway

While the Fed’s “Santa Claus” rate cut is still some time away, Wall Street enters a cautiously optimistic week, however, the Fed meeting is only one of the factors that will influence the mood of the investors. In addition to economic indicators, corporate earnings, and global developments, investors will closely monitor the stock market to see how it will close in 2025.