Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Steady as Wall Street Awaits Expected Fed Rate Cut
US stock futures traded steady on Monday as investors await the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of 2025, with expectations high for another rate cut. Key market movers include Carvana, Marvell, Rivian, and updates on Berkshire, IBM, and China’s record trade surplus.
US stock futures trade steady ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of 2025, with Wall Street closely watching economic data and key earnings this week.
US markets opened the week on a cautious note, with futures trading largely steady as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of 2025.
Stock futures linked to the S&P 500 traded slightly above the flatline, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained nearly 0.3% after both indexes logged their fourth straight day of gains. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures also remained little changed.
Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Dominate Market Sentiment
Market confidence is high that the Fed will announce another interest rate cut in its two-day policy meeting beginning Tuesday. According to CME FedWatch, traders now assign an 88% probability of a cut—up from 67% a month ago—boosted by cooling September PCE inflation data.
The split within the Federal Reserve over whether to prioritize inflation or labor market trends hasn’t shaken Wall Street’s expectations. However, analysts say the rate-cut trajectory for 2026 looks less certain.
This week’s key economic indicators include the delayed October JOLTS job openings report, which is expected to offer better insight into hiring trends, layoffs, and worker turnover.
Earnings to Watch: Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom, Costco
A packed earnings calendar will keep traders busy:
Wednesday: Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE)
Thursday: Broadcom (AVGO), Costco (COST)
Premarket Movers: Carvana Surges, Marvell Slides
- Carvana (CVNA) jumped 8% premarket after being added to the S&P 500 during the index’s quarterly rebalancing.
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) fell 6% after expectations for its inclusion in the index did not materialize.
- Rivian (RIVN) slipped 3% after announcing a recall of 35,000 vehicles due to a faulty seat-belt pretensioner cable.
Buffett’s Key Investment Aide Exits Berkshire for JPMorgan
Todd Combs, a long-time Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) investment manager and Warren Buffett’s close protégé, will leave the company to take up a senior role at JPMorgan Chase. Combs also stepped down as CEO of Geico, with COO Nancy Pierce taking over.
The move comes as Berkshire prepares for Buffett’s transition, with Greg Abel set to assume chief executive duties in 2026.
Yardeni Turns Cautious on Magnificent Seven
After 15 years of bullish positioning on Big Tech, Yardeni Research has shifted to an underweight outlook on the “Magnificent Seven,” citing rising competition and narrowing profit margins. The firm now recommends adding exposure to financials, industrials, and healthcare.
China Posts Record $1 Trillion Trade Surplus
China’s exports recovered in November, lifting the country’s 2025 trade surplus above $1.08 trillion, the highest on record. Exports rose 5.9%, while imports increased slightly under 2%. Despite year-long declines in shipments to the US, exports surged to regions including Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the EU.
IBM Nears $11 Billion Deal to Acquire Confluent
Shares of Confluent (CFLT) soared nearly 30% premarket following reports that IBM is in advanced talks to acquire the real-time data infrastructure firm for around $11 billion. The deal would mark one of IBM’s largest recent acquisitions and strengthen its AI-driven software portfolio.
