Sensex, Nifty Outlook: 8 Factors Shaping Indian Market Opening – From Wall Street to Gold Prices

Indian benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty 50, are set to open lower today, Friday, July 25, 2025, reflecting a cautious sentiment driven by a confluence of international factors. This anticipated downtick follows a significant dip in the Indian market on Thursday, with the Nifty 50 closing below the 25,100 mark.

The global landscape presents a mixed bag for investors. While Asian markets largely traded in the red, mirroring recent trade developments, the US stock market saw a split performance overnight. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 notably achieved record highs, fueled by strong Q2 results from tech giants like Alphabet, suggesting continued optimism around artificial intelligence stocks. Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a decline, and several prominent US companies, including Tesla and IBM, saw their shares tumble.

Key Factors Influencing Today's Market Mood:

♦ Gift Nifty Signals Weakness: The Gift Nifty, an early indicator for the Indian market, was trading at a discount of approximately 115 points from Nifty futures' previous close. This suggests a negative start for domestic equities.

♦ European Central Bank Holds Rates: The ECB opted to keep its main interest rate unchanged at 2%, a widely expected move. This pause comes after a year of easing policy and signals the central bank's intent to monitor global trade relations, particularly with the US, before further adjustments.

♦ India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Formalized: In a significant development, India and the United Kingdom officially signed a landmark FTA. This agreement aims to boost annual bilateral trade by nearly $34 billion, offering easier market access for products from both nations. For India, 99% of its exports will benefit from tariff reductions, while British goods like whisky, automobiles, medical devices, and cosmetics are expected to become more affordable in India.

♦ US Jobless Claims Fall Unexpectedly: The number of Americans filing new unemployment claims surprisingly decreased last week, indicating continued strength in the US labor market. This robust employment data could influence the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.

♦ Gold and Crude Oil Prices See Movement: Gold prices edged higher, supported by a weaker US dollar, though progress in trade negotiations limited significant gains. Meanwhile, crude oil prices also rose amid reports of Russia's plans to restrict gasoline exports, potentially impacting global energy costs.

Market experts advise investors to adopt a stock-specific and hedged strategy, given the prevailing mixed signals and cautious sentiment. The Nifty 50's inability to breach the 25,250 resistance level on Thursday underscores this cautious approach.