Oracle Shares Slip Below $200 for First Time Since September — Is the OpenAI Bet Backfiring?

Oracle’s aggressive push into artificial intelligence was expected to fuel the company’s next phase of growth — but the stock market is telling a different story.

On Friday, Oracle shares dipped below the key $200 mark, marking the first time the stock has fallen to this level since early September. The decline now totals nearly 40% from its record peak of $345.72 on September 10, raising questions about whether investors are losing confidence in the tech giant’s AI-heavy strategy.

📉 Stock Slide Despite AI Momentum

Despite the slump, there were minor signs of strength. On Thursday, Oracle’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating climbed to 83 from 80, a signal often interpreted as technical resilience.

But that uptick wasn’t enough to offset a broader trend: investors continue distancing themselves from high-risk, AI-driven tech stocks like Oracle and even Nvidia. The caution has grown since early October, when speculation of an “AI bubble” began weighing on the market.

The stock has now broken below its 20-week simple moving average, a level that previously acted as a long-term support throughout 2024.

🤖 Is There an “OpenAI Curse”?

Much of Oracle’s decline traces back to its landmark partnership and $300 billion investment agreement with OpenAI, announced earlier this year.

Instead of boosting investor confidence, the news triggered sharp skepticism. Since the announcement, Oracle has reportedly lost nearly $360 billion in market value.

Analysts say this pullback isn’t coincidental: nearly 65% of Oracle’s projected incremental revenue relies on OpenAI — an unusually high dependence on a single partner.

💸 Debt Concerns Rising

Investors are especially alarmed by Oracle’s increasing debt-financed growth. The company is borrowing massively to expand data centers and AI infrastructure for OpenAI, pushing its total debt load beyond $100 billion.

As lenders seek more safeguards on AI-driven capital, analysts warn Oracle risks becoming a proxy stock for OpenAI’s future — not its own core business strength.

⚠️ Sector Comparison Tells a Story

While Oracle struggles, broader tech indicators like the Nasdaq Composite, Dow Jones US Software Index, and even AI leader Microsoft have displayed relative stability — suggesting the issue is company-specific rather than a sector-wide collapse.

🧭 Investor Outlook: Uncertainty Ahead

Oracle has outlined an ambitious goal of reaching $166 billion in cloud revenue by 2030, but so far, the market isn’t convinced.

Until investors see clarity on debt risk, diversification beyond OpenAI, and profitable execution of its cloud strategy, volatility may continue.

Key Takeaways

Oracle shares have plunged nearly 40% from September highs.

The company’s heavy reliance on OpenAI is spooking investors.

Debt exceeding $100 billion and AI infrastructure spending are raising red flags.

Market analysts remain cautious as AI investment risks intensify.