Indian Stock Market Today: 10 Key Overnight Cues for Sensex and Nifty — Gift Nifty, Global Markets, Bonds, Gold

The Indian bourses are expected to open on a negative note today, with sentiment souring due to negative global clues ahead of the US Federal Reserves policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday.

Early indications from Nifty, embedded with losses made in Asian markets and rising global bond yields, are underpinning concerns among investors.

📉 Market Snapshot: What Happened on Monday

Indian equities witnessed a sharp sell-off in the previous session amid mixed global cues.

• Sensex: Fell 610 points (0.71%) to close at 85,102.69
• Nifty 50: Dropped 226 points (0.86%) to 25,960.55
• BSE Midcap: Down 1.73%
• BSE Smallcap: Slumped 2.20%

Nearly ₹7 lakh crore in investor wealth was wiped out in a single session as the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies fell to ₹463.6 lakh crore, from ₹471 lakh crore in the previous session.

🗣️ Market View

According to Vikram Kasat, Head of Advisory at PL Capital, currency weakness and persistent foreign fund outflows have kept markets defensive. With limited domestic triggers, investor focus has shifted entirely to the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook, which could influence capital flows, currencies and near-term risk appetite in emerging markets.

🔟 Key Overnight Market Cues to Watch Today

1️⃣ Asian Markets

Asian equities traded lower as investors remained wary of how aggressively the US Federal Reserve may ease policy. MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index slipped 0.2%, with markets in Japan, South Korea and Australia opening in the red. US stock futures, however, edged slightly higher after Monday’s decline.

2️⃣ Gift Nifty Today

Gift Nifty was trading near the 25,958 level, a discount of around 82 points or 0.3% compared to the previous close of Nifty futures, indicating a weak opening for Indian markets.

3️⃣ Wall Street Overnight

US markets ended lower on Monday as Treasury yields climbed ahead of the Fed meeting.

Dow Jones: Down 215.67 points (0.45%) at 47,739.32

S&P 500: Fell 0.35% to 6,846.51

Nasdaq Composite: Slipped 0.14% to 23,545.90

Among stocks, Warner Bros Discovery jumped 4.4% after Paramount Skydance made a $108.4 billion acquisition bid, while Paramount shares surged 9%. Netflix, however, fell 3.4%.

4️⃣ US Fed Rate Decision

Markets are bracing for a 25 basis-point rate cut at Wednesday’s Fed meeting. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a cut stands at 87.4%, though investors remain alert to signals suggesting a slower pace of easing in 2026.

5️⃣ Japan Bond Yields

Japan’s five-year government bond yield hovered near a 17-year high at 1.445%, while the 10-year yield stayed close to 1.965%, reflecting expectations of further tightening by the Bank of Japan.

6️⃣ Nvidia Gets Approval to Sell AI Chips to China

US President Donald Trump approved Nvidia to export its H200 AI chips to China, subject to a 25% surcharge. The move could help Nvidia reclaim billions in revenue and also opens the door for other US chipmakers such as Intel and AMD.

7️⃣ UK Retail Sales

UK retail sales grew just 1.4% year-on-year in November, marking the weakest growth since May. Despite Black Friday discounts, spending remained subdued as higher taxes weighed on consumer confidence.

8️⃣ US Dollar and Bond Yields

The US dollar strengthened as Treasury yields climbed to multi-month highs. The 10-year US yield rose to its highest level since September, adding pressure on global equities and emerging markets.

9️⃣ Gold Prices

Gold traded flat near $4,193 an ounce, as investors looked beyond the near-certain rate cut and focused on signals about the Fed’s 2026 policy path. Silver edged lower, while platinum and palladium remained steady.

🔟 Oil Prices

Oil prices stabilised after sharp losses in the previous session. WTI crude hovered near $59 a barrel, while Brent crude traded above $62, with traders awaiting fresh supply-demand data from the US EIA, OPEC and IEA.

🔑 Takeaway

With global markets on edge ahead of the US Fed decision, Indian equities may remain volatile. Gift Nifty signals a weak start, while bond yields, currency movement and global cues will drive market direction through the session.