D-Street Outlook: Key Triggers That Will Drive Stock Market Sentiment This Week

Indian markets are heading into a crucial week, with multiple domestic and global factors set to influence investor sentiment. After ending the previous week on a cautious note—Nifty dipped 0.7%—all eyes are now on Q1 earnings, global cues, IPO activity, and macro data as trading resumes on Monday.

📉 Market Recap & Technical Outlook

Indian benchmark indices ended the week weaker. According to Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, the Nifty faced selling pressure near 24,900, though it stayed above its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), signaling a possible short-term bounce. However, the market remains in a "sell-on-rise" phase as long as the index stays below 25,260.

🔑 Key Market Drivers This Week:

1. Q1 Corporate Earnings

A busy week awaits with 286 companies set to report their June quarter earnings. Major Nifty players in focus include:

• Infosys
• Eicher Motors
• UltraTech Cement
• Bajaj Finance
• Tata Consumer Products
• Dr. Reddy’s
• Cipla
• Kotak Mahindra Bank
• SBI Life Insurance

Additionally, Paytm, Zee Entertainment, IRFC, and Bajaj Housing Finance will also declare results. Monday’s session will be crucial as investors digest Reliance, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank Q1 results.

2. US Market Trends

Wall Street ended mixed on Friday:

• Dow Jones fell 142 points
• S&P 500 remained flat
• Nasdaq gained marginally

Investors will monitor upcoming US earnings and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which may hint at future interest rate moves.

3. Corporate Actions

Over 100 companies will take actions such as dividends, bonus issues, and rights offers this week:

• LIC, Hero MotoCorp, Divi’s Labs, Shree Cement, Zydus Lifesciences, and Union Bank have dividend record dates.
• Mahindra Logistics will set the record date for its rights issue on July 23, and Focus Business Solution for a bonus issue.

4. IPO Watch

The primary market remains active with four mainboard IPOs:

• IndiQube Spaces (₹700 crore)
• GNG Electronics (Both open July 23)
• Brigade Hotel Ventures (Opens July 24)
• Shanti Gold International (Opens July 25)
• SME IPOs to watch include Monarch Surveyors, TSC India, and Patel Chem Specialities.

5. Institutional Flows

• FIIs bought ₹374.74 crore in equities on Friday
• DIIs were net buyers at ₹2,103.51 crore
• Flows from both foreign and domestic institutions will remain crucial.

6. US Economic Data

Important US data points this week:

• Existing Home Sales (June) – July 23
• Initial Jobless Claims – July 24
• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Prelim) – July 24

These could influence global investor sentiment, especially amid concerns of a potential economic slowdown.

7. Rupee Movement

The rupee ended the week at 86.1475 against the US dollar, posting its second consecutive weekly loss. Ongoing equity outflows and strong dollar demand may push it towards 86.50. The dollar index is also strengthening, backed by solid US data.

8. Crude Oil Prices

• WTI Crude: $67.30
• Brent Crude: $69.28

Geopolitical risks, including drone attacks in Iraq, could impact oil supply and inflation expectations—both key market influencers.

🧭 What to Expect

As trading resumes, markets will be closely watching:

• Q1 earnings impact
• IPO momentum
• Global and US macro data
• Oil prices and rupee volatility

Investors are advised to stay cautious and focus on fundamentals, with volatility likely to remain elevated amid heavy data flow.

Disclaimer: Market views and recommendations expressed by analysts are their own and do not reflect the views of The Times of India.