Canada Stock Market Today: 7 Key Things to Know Before the TSX Opens on December 3, 2025

Canada’s stock market is set for an active Wednesday as fresh economic data, major bank earnings and strong global cues shape investor sentiment ahead of the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) opening bell. Here are the top developments to watch on December 3, 2025.

1. TSX Slips After a Mild Pause

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed at 31,049.28, down 52.50 points on Tuesday — a modest cool-off after late-November gains. Basic materials led the decline, while tech stocks remained resilient.

Bank shares were in focus as investors awaited earnings. Scotiabank sparked early momentum with a stronger-than-expected profit jump, lifting its stock by nearly 2.8%. Meanwhile, U.S. markets continued to support global sentiment, closing higher across major indices.

2. Global Sentiment Stable: Strong Commodities, Soft Dollar

Overnight trading indicates steady global markets. Copper surged to fresh records, gold hovered close to all-time highs, and oil prices firmed — all positive signs for resource-heavy Canadian equities.

The U.S. dollar index dipped slightly, and Treasury yields eased, supporting risk-on appetite.

3. Bank of Canada Rate at 2.25% Amid Mixed Economic Signals

The Bank of Canada’s October rate cut to 2.25% still shapes the economic outlook.

Q3 GDP showed a 2.6% annualised rebound, largely driven by energy exports. However, domestic demand remains sluggish, and preliminary data suggests a 0.3% GDP dip in October, raising concerns for Q4 momentum.

Key data to watch today:

Q3 labour productivity (8:30 a.m. EST)

Import Price Index for manufacturing

4. Big Six Banks in the Spotlight: RBC & National Bank Earnings

• Today’s biggest market catalysts are earnings from Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) and National Bank of Canada.
• Analysts expect strong results as capital markets and wealth management show improvement.
• A strong showing could boost the financial sector, which has already outpaced the broader TSX in 2025.

5. Housing Weakness Weighs on Consumer Outlook

GTA home sales fell to a five-month low in November, down 0.6% from October.

Prices also dipped, and buyers remain cautious despite lower borrowing costs. Combined with weak household spending data, the housing sector remains one of Canada’s key economic soft spots.

6. Stock-Specific Catalysts: ETFs, Buybacks & Corporate Updates

Several market developments may create movement in individual stocks:

• New ETFs launched, including the Evolve Big Six Banks UltraYield ETF and a Global X Copper Covered-Call ETF.
• Companies such as International Petroleum Corporation and Stack Capital Group initiated new share-buyback programs.
• Snowline Gold moved from TSX Venture to TSX, improving liquidity prospects.
• Multiple small-cap miners and energy firms issued drilling and operational updates.

7. TSX 2026 Outlook: Moderated Upside Ahead

Market strategists see moderate gains ahead. A Reuters survey forecasts the TSX rising toward 32,125 by end-2026.

Lower interest rates, strong energy and metals demand, and favourable valuations versus U.S. equities may support upside — though analysts warn of a potential short-term correction due to elevated valuations and commodity volatility.

Takeaway Before Today’s TSX Open

Here’s the summary heading into December 3:

• Growth stable but fragile, with BoC likely holding rates steady at 2.25%.
• Bank earnings from RBC and National Bank are today’s main market drivers.
• Copper, gold and oil continue to support energy and mining shares.
• Housing softness remains a significant drag on Canadian consumers.

Investors can expect a data-heavy, earnings-driven trading day with plenty of catalysts both domestically and globally.