Trade Setup for March 10: Nifty risks fresh sell-off if 23,850 support breaks

The Nifty 50 recovered from intraday lows on March 9 but still closed sharply lower as rising crude oil prices and weak global cues continued to pressure Indian equities.

Indian equity markets remained under heavy selling pressure on March 9, with the benchmark Nifty 50 extending its recent losing streak despite staging a late-session recovery. The index fell sharply during early trade before rebounding from intraday lows, but analysts continue to see the market in a sell-on-rise phase heading into the March 10 session.

The Nifty dropped as much as 700 points in early trade amid weak global cues and rising geopolitical tensions. The index touched an intraday low of 23,697 before recovering over 300 points during the latter part of the session to close near the day’s high. Despite the rebound, the index still ended the day lower by 422 points.

The recent correction has been steep, with the Nifty losing nearly 2,000 points from its recent swing high within just three weeks. Monday’s sharp decline also wiped out nearly ₹9 lakh crore in investor wealth during the trading session.

Among individual stocks, Wipro Ltd, Reliance Industries Ltd and Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd emerged as the top gainers on the Nifty. Meanwhile, Tata Motors Ltd, UltraTech Cement Ltd and Maruti Suzuki India Ltd were among the major laggards due to sustained selling pressure.

Sectorally, the weakness was widespread across the market. The Nifty IT index was the only sectoral gauge that ended in positive territory, while Nifty Auto, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Consumer Durables and Nifty Metal recorded significant losses.

Broader markets also mirrored the decline seen in benchmark indices. The Nifty Midcap 100 index ended the day down 1.97%, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 index closed 2.22% lower, despite recovering from deeper intraday losses.

Key Factors Behind the Market Fall

A sharp rally in crude oil prices has emerged as one of the key headwinds for Indian equities. Oil prices surged nearly 30% and crossed the $115 per barrel mark amid escalating tensions involving the United States and Iran. Since India is a major importer of crude oil, higher prices raise concerns about inflation and economic stability.

Global market weakness also added to the pressure. US stock futures declined sharply, with Dow Jones futures falling nearly 489 points after earlier sliding more than 1,000 points. Futures linked to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also traded lower, reflecting heightened risk aversion among investors.

In addition, the strengthening US dollar has weighed on emerging markets. The US Dollar Index is hovering near the 100 level, while the Indian rupee has weakened close to record lows around 92.34 against the dollar. A stronger dollar typically increases imported inflation and creates pressure on sectors such as metals.

Nifty Outlook for March 10

Market experts believe the overall structure of the market remains weak despite the late recovery. Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said that after forming a fresh lower low near 23,700, the index may see a short-term pullback toward the 24,200–24,300 zone, which could act as a sell-on-rise opportunity.

Analysts at Bajaj Broking noted that if the Nifty manages to hold above the 23,700 support level, the index could witness a rebound toward the 24,400–24,500 range in the coming sessions. However, a break below this support could push the index further down to the 23,400–23,200 zone.

According to Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities, the 23,880–23,850 region remains a crucial support band. A decisive break below 23,850 may trigger fresh selling pressure and drag the index toward the 23,700 mark.

On the upside, the 24,130–24,150 range is expected to act as immediate resistance, and a sustained move above this level would be required for any meaningful recovery.

Meanwhile, Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities said the short-term trend remains bearish as the index continues to trade below key moving averages. He added that the intraday low of 23,697 will act as immediate support, while any relief rally is likely to face resistance around the 24,300–24,400 zone.