Trade Setup for April 28: Nifty's next move hinges on Reliance Q4 results

Indian equities extended Thursday's losses, kicking off the May F&O series on a weaker footing, weighed down by escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. The Nifty 50 slipped below its crucial 200-day moving average (200-DMA), hinting at a possible return to bearish territory.

Despite opening higher, markets closed in the red as sentiment soured following terror attacks in Kashmir. The Nifty tested its important support zone between 23,800–23,870, bouncing back more than 300 points from the day's low of 23,847. However, another wave of selling towards the end pulled the index down by 207 points, closing at 24,039.

For the week, Nifty managed to clock a 1% gain—its second consecutive weekly advance—though losses on Thursday and Friday trimmed the overall gains. Broader markets underperformed, with the Midcap index sliding nearly 3%.

Friday’s sell-off erased nearly ₹9 lakh crore in market capitalisation across all BSE-listed companies. Sectorally, IT stood out with a modest 0.72% rise, while media, realty, pharma, and PSU banks led the losses.

Earnings Impact:

Shriram Finance tumbled 6% after disappointing Q4 results.

Maruti Suzuki missed margin estimates, with EBITDA falling 9% year-on-year to ₹4,264.5 crore. Margins dropped to 10.5% from 12.3%, dragging the stock down by nearly 2%.

Key Triggers Ahead:

Q4 earnings season will continue to guide market direction.

Investors await the US Fed’s FOMC policy decision on May 7, which could stir further global market reactions.

Stocks to Watch on Monday:

Reliance Industries (RIL)

RBL Bank

DCB Bank

Indraprastha Gas

Plus results from TVS Motor, UltraTech Cement, Adani Green Energy, Adani Total Gas, IDBI Bank, IRFC, Kfin Technologies, PNB Housing Finance, and UCO Bank.

Adding to the buzz, Ather Energy’s ₹2,981 crore IPO will open for subscription on April 28, the first major mainboard IPO in over two months.

Technical View:

According to Vinay Rajani (HDFC Securities), Nifty, despite its sharp rally of over 2,600 points from the 21,743 low, seems to be undergoing a running correction. The broader trend remains bullish as long as it stays above key DMAs (20, 50, 100, and 200).

Support: 23,847; breach could drag Nifty down to 23,500.

Resistance: 24,150 and 24,365.

Rupak De (LKP Securities) emphasized a risk-off mood among investors, suggesting that the index could drift lower in the short term, with support levels seen at 23,800 and 23,515.

Om Mehra (SAMCO Securities) expects a period of consolidation before Nifty charts its next decisive move.

Nifty Bank Snapshot:

The Nifty Bank index slipped 0.97% to 54,664.05 on Friday but ended the week 0.69% higher.

Support: 54,200 and 53,500 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement).

Resistance: 55,400.

The index is likely to remain range-bound in the coming sessions, said Mehra.