Monday’s Trade Setup: RIL, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank to drive market direction
Nifty closed marginally higher but remains range-bound. Analysts say moves above 25,900 or below 25,500 will decide direction, with RIL and bank stocks in focus.
Trade Setup Jan 19: RIL, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank to Set Nifty’s tone
The Nifty ended marginally higher after snapping a two-day losing streak, but analysts expect Monday’s move to be driven by heavyweight stocks like Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank amid a broader consolidation phase.
After two consecutive sessions of decline, the Nifty managed to halt its losing streak on Friday, closing marginally higher by 28 points at 25,694. However, analysts believe the index remains in a consolidation phase, with Monday’s direction likely to be influenced by heavyweight stocks such as Reliance Industries (RIL), HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank.
The benchmark index opened 31 points higher and rallied sharply in the first 90 minutes of trade, climbing 177 points to an intraday high of 25,873. The momentum faded after 10:45 am as selling pressure emerged near higher levels, dragging the index more than 200 points off its peak. The Nifty later recovered part of the losses to close slightly in the green.
Repeated attempts to sustain above the 25,900 zone were capped by selling pressure, highlighting the importance of this level as a key resistance. Analysts said a sustained move above 25,900 could pave the way for further upside in the coming sessions, while a break below 25,500 may trigger additional downside.
Among Nifty constituents, IT majors Infosys, Tech Mahindra, and Wipro led gains, buoyed by strong quarterly earnings from Infosys. On the other hand, Eternal, Jio Financial Services, and Cipla ended the session as top laggards.
Sectorally, the Nifty IT index surged over 3%, while Nifty Bank and PSU Bank indices also showed strength. In contrast, Pharma, Healthcare, and Metal stocks faced selling pressure. The broader market saw mixed action, with the Nifty Midcap 100 rising 0.16% and the Nifty Smallcap 100 slipping 0.28%.
Market sentiment received support after the Commerce Secretary indicated that the first tranche of the India–US trade deal is nearing finalisation. Risk appetite also improved marginally amid easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.
Despite these positives, experts remain cautious. Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal said markets are likely to trade sideways, driven by stock-specific action around earnings and trade developments. Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said a decisive move above 25,900 could open further upside, while a fall below 25,500 would weaken the setup.
Nilesh Jain of Centrum Broking noted that the 100-day moving average around 25,570 is an important support, while resistance is placed near the 50-day moving average at 26,960. Other analysts highlighted support in the 25,500–25,600 zone and resistance near 25,835–25,900.
Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty outperformed frontline indices. Analysts said the 60,400–60,500 zone will act as immediate resistance, with support placed around 59,500–59,600.
