Quarterly results, geopolitical cues to steer market direction

Supported by positive global as well domestic cues including renewed buying from FIIs, continued buying from DIIs, Israel-Hamas Cease Fire deal, softening geopolitical risks, positive developments in US-India trade talks and good start to the Q2 earnings season; markets extended the gains in the second consecutive week.

For the week, Sensex added 1293.65 points or 1.59 per cent to finish at 82,500.82 and the Nifty rose 391.1 points or 1.57 per cent to end at 25,285.35. Mild caution was evident in the broader market. BSE Mid-cap Index rose 1.5 per cent and the BSE Small-cap index ended flat during the week.

After remaining net sellers for the last 12 weeks, the FIIs turned net buyers in this week purchasing equities worth Rs 2975.53 crore. On the other hand, DIIs remained net buyers for 25th week with purchases worth Rs 8,391.11 crore. Year-to-date for 2025, FIIs have withdrawn Rs2.38 lakh crore, while DIIs have invested Rs 5.87 lakh crore. Indian rupee ended 9 paise higher at 88.69 per dollar on October 10 against the October 3 closing of 88.78. During the week the Indian rupee traded in the range of 88.79-88.50.

Markets will closely monitor developments on the US-China trade front, especially after Trump threatened to withdraw from a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at a summit in South Korea later this month. While most of China’s new restrictions are not scheduled to take effect until December 1, markets remain hopeful for last-minute negotiations. Nonetheless, the renewed trade tensions are likely to fuel volatility and keep markets on edge in the short term.

Two of the nation’s biggest initial public offerings Tata Capital Ltd. and LG Electronics India Ltd. will begin trading on exchanges over the next couple of days. Their debuts are set to test the strength of one of the world’s hottest equity capital markets. Much is riding on these debuts for the companies, but more broadly, they are likely to set the tone for the hundreds of firms waiting to go public in India.

The Q2 earnings season, which began on October 9 with TCS announcing its Q2 numbers, the growth is expected to be modest, with Nifty companies likely to post around 6 per cent year-on-year earnings growth. Key stocks announcing Q2 earnings on investors’ radar in coming week: HCL Technologies, Indian Bank, Anand Rathi, Just Dial, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, ICICI Lombard General Insurance, Tech Mahindra, IREDA, Persistent Systems. Infosys, Jio Financial Services, JSW Infrastructure, Nestlé India, Axis Bank, HDFC Asset Management, HDFC Life, Wipro, Delta Corp, Angel One, HDB Financial Services, IRFC, Tata Communications, Reliance Industries, Havells, Tata Technologies, CEAT, Dalmia Bharat, Dixon Technologies, Polycab India, L&T Technology Services HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, IDBI Bank, IDFC First Bank, IndusInd Bank, RBL Bank, and Yes Bank.

Covering conglomerates, consumer electricals, engineering, IT and Insurance stocks, market participants will focus on growth trends and profitability in these sectors. These results are expected to offer insights into diversified sectoral growth.

US-China Tariff War: US stocks tumbled over weekend after President Trump posted on Truth Social that he may cancel a planned meeting with China’s president and is considering “a massive increase in tariffs” on Chinese products. The selloff was steep enough to wipe out weekly gains by the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite. Stocks had recovered all their April losses and then blew past record after record in recent weeks with investors betting that the worst of the trade war was over.

But with one Friday Post on Truth Social, President Trump revived fears it may not be. What investors are most worried about is this trade war along with softening employment trends resulting in a recession. Trump said in a second post after markets closed that he would impose a 100 per cent additional tariff on China beginning Nov. 1. Trump was responding to China’s announcement that it would tighten controls on exports of some rare-earth materials crucial to making electric vehicles, jet fighters and other high-tech products. Shares in Western companies trying to edge into that market shot upward. Oil prices tumbled to their lowest levels since “Liberation Day.”

China is the world’s second-largest consumer of oil. Beijing also moved to impose a special port fee on U.S. vessels and launched an antimonopoly probe into U.S. chip company Qualcomm, shares of which fell 7.3 per cent Friday. Stocks held on to most of their 2025 gains. The S&P 500 is up 11 per cent year to date, while the Nasdaq is up 15 per cent. Many do not expect Trump’s comments would be enough to end the bull market. Bull markets don’t die of old age; they die of fright. And they are most afraid of recession.

Be prepared to invest in a down market and to “get out” in a soaring market, as per the philosophy of Warren Buffett.

FUTURES & OPTIONS / SECTOR WATCH

Tracking cash markets, derivative segment witnessed brisk trading. For the week ended, the Nifty surged over 1.5 per cent, while the Bank Nifty outperformed, closing with gains of approximately 1.8 per cent. Among sectors, Nifty Capital Market and IT indices remained top performers with 5 per cent gain, followed by Nifty Healthcare index (up 3 per cent), Nifty Realty index (up 2.3 per cent), Nifty Private Bank, Nifty Consumer Durables, Nifty Pharma up 2 per cent each. In the derivatives segment, the highest Call open interest for the Nifty was observed at the 25,500 and 25,400 strike levels, while notable Put open interest stood at the 24,200 and 25,100 strikes.

For the Bank Nifty, significant Call open interest was concentrated at the 57,000 strike, with substantial Put open interest was seen at the 56,000 strike. Implied volatility (IV) for Nifty’s Call options settled at 8.74 per cent, while Put options concluded at 9.91 per cent.

The India VIX, a key indicator of market volatility, concluded the week at 10.12 per cent. The Put-Call Ratio Open Interest (PCR OI) stood at 0.99 for the week. The index remains in a broad consolidation zone, and unless a breakout above 25,550– 25,600 is confirmed, the broader market will continue to exhibit rangebound behaviour.

While the broader structure leans positive, traders should remain mindful of the critical resistance the Nifty is testing. Given the setup, a balanced and stock-specific approach is warranted for the week ahead. Protection of profits becomes essential at higher levels, and aggressive long positions should be avoided until a breakout is confirmed with follow-through strength.

The best method to approach the coming week would be to trail profits, maintain tight stop losses, and stay stock-specific. Immediate support is placed at 24,800; as long as the index remains above this level, the bullish view is expected to hold, and the market can be approached with a “buy on dips” strategy. On the upside, resistance is placed in the 25,500–25,600 zone.

Stocks looking good are Astral, Blue Star, HUDCO, IGL, Lodha, Nykaa and SBI. Stocks looking weak are HDFC Life, IEX, K Fin Tech, Samman Capital, Torrent Pharma, Trent and PI Inds.

(The author is a senior maket analyst and former vice-chairman, Andhra Pradesh State Planning Board)

STOCK PICKS

Oswal Pumps Limited

The company manufactures and sells solar pumps in India. The company offers solar-powered and grid-connected submersible and mono block pumps, electric motors, and solar modules under the Oswal brand. It serves agricultural, residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.

The company offers efficient product range of Electric Motors for various machinery applications and High-Pressure Pumps for Boiler & RO Plants. Pumps with optimum lift and discharge characteristics, Oswal’s Agricultural Pumps are best suitable to water agriculture fields, ideal for drip and sprinkler irrigation.

The company’s solar pumps are designed based on the solar radiation received. Built according to MNRE guidelines, they are suitable for watering purposes in residences, factories, and agricultural fields. The government’s flagship initiative, PM-KUSUM scheme, has further accelerated the adoption of solar pumps and efficient water management systems—areas where Oswal Pumps has already established a strong foothold with its proven product portfolio.

Indian solar pump market was valued at Rs164.5B in FY25 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.5 per cent between FY25-30, expected to reach Rs271.1B by FY30. The Indian economy’s resilience, aided by agricultural modernisation, and the government’s strong push for the adoption of solar pumps for farmers and renewable energy adoption, presents an encouraging business environment for us.

Against this backdrop, Oswal Pumps is strategically positioned to leverage emerging opportunities across multiple sectors. It also exports its products to Australia, Egypt, Iraq, Italy, Lebanon, Libya, Nepal, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Buy on declines for medium term target of Rs1250.