Nifty faces resistance at 22,300 amid bearish sentiment

The Nifty 50 remained under pressure on March 4, marking its tenth consecutive session of decline. Despite an early recovery attempt, the overall market sentiment stayed bearish. Analysts suggest that the index may encounter resistance in the 22,250-22,300 range, aligning with the March 3 high and the midpoint of the February 28 long bearish candle. Key support levels are identified between 21,900 and 21,800.

Market Performance

The index opened lower at 21,974, briefly dipped to 21,965, and rebounded above 22,000 before closing at 22,083, down 37 points. A bullish candlestick pattern emerged on the daily charts, indicating a close higher than the opening price. Despite this, the Nifty continues forming lower highs and lower lows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the oversold territory at 21.79, signaling weak momentum.

Expert Insights

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, noted that while the recovery was not encouraging, the market is near a key support zone between 22,000 and 21,800. Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, pointed out that an improving Put-Call Ratio (PCR) suggests bullish sentiment is building. A breakout above the 22,250-22,300 resistance could indicate a trend reversal, while 21,900 remains a crucial downside level.

Derivatives Data & Market Sentiment

Weekly derivatives data suggest a broader trading range of 21,500-22,500 in the short term, with an immediate range of 21,900-22,200. On the Call side, the 22,500 strike has the highest open interest, followed by 23,000 and 22,600. The most active Put strikes are at 21,500, 22,000, and 21,900, with significant writing activity at 21,500 and 22,000.

Bank Nifty Outlook

The banking index outperformed the Nifty 50, gaining 131 points to close at 48,245. It formed a bullish candlestick pattern while maintaining support at the previous session’s low of 47,841. Lower timeframe charts indicate a higher low formation, suggesting a potential shift in momentum. If the index sustains above 48,400, short-covering may accelerate, pushing it toward the 48,600 and 49,000-49,500 resistance zones, according to Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments.

Volatility & Market Watch

India VIX remained below 14, rising slightly by 0.49% to 13.83, offering stability for bullish traders. Analysts advise monitoring key resistance and support levels, along with broader market trends, for clearer trading signals.

Disclaimer: Investors should consult certified professionals before making financial decisions.