CLSA bets big on India mid-caps, sees 30% upside as Nifty targets 28,800
CLSA expects India’s mid-cap stocks to rally over 30% as Nifty targets 28,800, supported by global macro tailwinds, commodity strength, and a weakening US dollar.
CLSA bets big on India mid-caps
CLSA strategist Laurence Balanco expects a major breakout in Indian mid-cap stocks after two years of consolidation, with a 30% rally possible. A decisive Nifty move above 26,300 could drive gains amid global macro and commodity tailwinds.
CLSA sees a compelling opportunity emerging in India’s mid-cap segment, with strategist Laurence Balanco forecasting a potential rally of more than 30% following nearly two years of consolidation.
According to Balanco, the NSE Midcap Select index is approaching a decisive breakout. A sustained move above the 62,000 level could unlock significant upside, as the index has already crossed the upper end of its long consolidation range—often a strong technical signal for renewed momentum.
On the broader market, Balanco notes that the Nifty is currently range-bound between 25,300 and 26,300. A clean breakout above 26,300 would be a key trigger, opening the door for upside targets of 27,800 initially and eventually 28,800.
His bullish stance on Indian equities is supported by shifting global macro dynamics. Balanco expects Asian markets to follow a boom-bust pattern in 2026, with North Asian tech-heavy markets such as Korea and Taiwan leading early in the year before losing steam. India, particularly mid-caps, is likely to regain leadership in the second half of the year.
A constructive outlook on commodities further strengthens this view. Balanco expects base metals to break out from late 2025, with aluminium potentially rising to $3,500 and LME copper futures crossing $16,000. While he remains cautious on silver, he is bullish on gold, with price targets between $5,100 and $5,200.
In contrast, CLSA is cautious on US equities. Balanco expects the S&P 500 to underperform global peers in 2026, citing the historical volatility of US midterm election years, particularly between April and October, despite a possible first-quarter rally towards 7,400.
A key pillar of his outlook is a confirmed bear market in the US dollar. The Dollar Index slipping below the crucial 100 mark signals a long-term top formed between 2022 and 2025. Balanco projects the DXY could fall further to the 89–90 range, marking the start of a multi-year downtrend that could benefit emerging markets like India.
