Markets hovering in consolidation mode

New Delhi: Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would be the major driving factors for the equity markets this week, according to analysts. India’s equity market witnessed a sharp fall last week by breaking a three-week streak of consecutive weekly gains. “Crude oil prices has seen a meaningful correction over the few days with Brent crude now close to $73 per barrel. In India, investors will look forward to release of macro data this week, including CPI inflation. Globally, investors remain optimistic about the possibility of a rate cut by the US Fed and would keenly look forward to the US Fed meet scheduled later this month,” said Shrikant Chouhan, head (equity research), Kotak Securities.

Among macroeconomic data announcements, industrial production for July and inflation data for August will be announced on Thursday.

The benchmark indices fell this week led by weaker global cues. Last week, the BSE benchmark dropped 1,181.84 points, or 1.43 per cent, while the Nifty declined 383.75 points, or 1.52 per cent. Falling for the third day running on Friday, the 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 1,017.23 points, or 1.24 per cent, to settle at 81,183.93. The NSE Nifty dropped 292.95 points, or 1.17 per cent, to 24,852.15, its third day of decline.

“We expect consolidation mode to continue in the market over the near term,” said Siddhartha Khemka, head (research), Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

“Investors would also track movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend. In the week ahead, US inflation data will be closely monitored, Vinod Nair, head (research), Geojit Financial Services.

“One key factor could be weaker job data from the USA, fueling concerns about a potential global economic slowdown. Additionally, India's weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets index has surpassed China’s, reaching its highest level. This raises the risk of a strategic reduction in weight allocation, especially given India's relatively high valuations,” experts said.

The market outlook will be guided by several global and domestic factors.

On the global front, the upcoming US Fed meeting, scheduled for mid-September, is drawing significant attention, with widespread expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.

On the Domestic front, inflation figures for August will be released by the government on September 12. Additionally, investors will closely watch the Rupee’s movement against the dollar, crude oil prices, and the investment trends of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) in the coming week.

Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst of Swastika Investmart Ltd said: “Last week, a weakness sign appeared in the Nifty. The main index of the National Stock Exchange has closed slightly above 24,850, an important support. If it slips below this, it can go up to 24,000. The zone of 24,600-24,450 is an important support for Nifty. On the upside, the zone of 25,000 to 25,200 is an important resistance level.”

Palka Arora Chopra, Director of Master Capital Services Ltd said: “Last week, Nifty Bank closed below 50,800. As of now 50,500 is an important support level for Nifty Bank. If it breaks, 49,800 level can also be seen in the index. 51,200 and then 51,800 are the important resistance levels for Nifty Bank.”