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Macro data to set the tone for markets

Immediate targets on the upside in the short to medium term would be 24,000-24,200 for Nifty and 78,800-79,400 for BSE Sensex

Macro data to set the tone for markets
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The June 6-12 period under review saw markets regaining composure and poise after the wild Monday and depressing Tuesday. Monday had gone ballistic when exit polls gave a landslide victory to NDA and when results were closer to reality and the expected did not happen, markets fell sharply. At the end of the period’s trading BSE Sensex gained on three of the five trading sessions, while Nifty gained on four of the five sessions. At the end of the period under review, markets were up sharply and close to all-time highs. BSE Sensex gained 2,224.33 points or 2.99 per cent to close at 76,606.57 points, while Nifty gained 702.55 points or 3.11per cent to close at 23,322.90 points.

Dow Jones gained on three of the five sessions, but ended virtually flat. It gained 36.13 points or 0.09 per cent to close at 38,747.42 points. RBI in its bi-monthly review meeting kept interest rates unchanged on expected lines. They expect GDP to grow at 7.2 per cent in the year 2025. This was a comforting sign and signal to the markets.

Retail investors at many a times are considered as those who get caught on the wrong foot. This time around they showed that they are far smarter than what they are thought off. They were sellers when markets rose sharply and bigger buyers when markets crashed. This clearly shows that they have not got caught or are victims of a scam in the stock markets as alleged by the opposition. On the contrary, they are making money and have made money in the markets.

In primary market news, Le Travenues Technology Ltd, the owners of the online travel company ‘IXIGO’ had tapped the capital markets. The issue consisted of a fresh issue of Rs120 crore and an offer for sale of 6,66,77,674 shares in a price band of Rs88-93. The issue had opened on Monday, 10 June and closed on Wednesday, 12 June. The company is present in all the three verticals such as airline tickets, rail tickets and bus tickets. The issue was subscribed 96.09 times overall. QIB portion was subscribed 104.82 times, HNI portion 109.14 times and Retail portion 50.36 times. There were 24.81 lac applications in all.

The June 13-19 period ahead has a trading holiday on Monday (June 17). This will cause some disruption in trading momentum. With Cabinet announced and first round of ministers having passed off quietly, it appears that the government is settling down to doing its business. With key ministers being the same, it appears that policy and policy making would be on similar lines.

Markets would settle down to being more logical and rational. Immediate targets on the upside in the short to medium term would be 24,000-24,200 on Nifty and 78,800-79,400 on BSE Sensex. On the downside solid support exists at lows made post-election results. Trade cautiously.

(The author is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services, an advisory firm)

Arun Kejriwal
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