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Macro data to dictate mkt trends this week

Investors look to RBI’s interest rate decision, global cues for next triggers: Analysts

Macro data to dictate mkt trends this week

New Delhi: Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends will drive investors’ sentiment this week, with markets hoping to continue the positive momentum after ending FY24 on a buoyant note, analysts said.

In addition, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also influence trading in equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in the 2023-24. The benchmark hit its all-time high of 74,245.17 on March 7. In 2023-24, the Nifty soared 4,967.15 points or 28.61 per cent.

“The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to start its three-day meeting deliberating interest rates and analysing the state of the economy on April 3 and will end on April 5. Auto stocks will be in focus as companies will announce the monthly sales numbers for March starting from April 1, 2024.

“Additionally, people will be watching how the rupee fares against the dollar and keeping a tab on crude oil prices. They will also be keeping an eye on investments made by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs),” said Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst at Swastika Investmart Ltd.

He added that the US Fed Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech is scheduled for April 3, 2024, and data like the US ISM manufacturing PMI for March will be declared on April 1.

“US non-farm payrolls data and the unemployment rate for March will be announced on April 5. These factors will be closely monitored, as they have the potential to influence markets' sentiment,” Gour added.

Mirroring bullish investors’ sentiment, the market capitalisation (mcap) of BSE-listed companies soared by Rs1,28,77,203.77 crore to Rs3,86,97,099.77 crore in FY24. “The outlook for the market will be guided by major global and domestic economic data, India automobile sales, US and India manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), US job openings, factory orders and US non-farm payrolls, and unemployment rate. The Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy committee will meet from April 3-5, 2024, and decide on policy rates. The monetary policy statement will provide important cues on the economy, inflation and interest rates,” said Arvinder Singh Nanda, senior vice-president at Master Capital Services Ltd.

Last week, the BSE benchmark climbed 819.41 points or 1.12 per cent, and the NSE Nifty advanced 230.15 points or 1.04 per cent.

“We expect volatility to remain high this week too, citing the scheduled MPC’s policy meeting. On the global front, participants would continue to take cues from the US markets, which are showing noticeable resilience,” added Ajit Mishra, SV-P (technical research) at Religare Broking Ltd.

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