Macro data signals mixed trend amid weak global cues

The market may witness some profit booking in the near term if the pressure on the Indian rupee persists. In the week ahead, investors will also have a close vigil on trade developments and economic data like IIP and Q2 FY26 GDP data to get the market direction, said analysts

Mumbai: The second quarter (Q2) GDP data, foreign institutional investors’ (FIIs) movement and global cues are projected to drive the Indian stock market sentiment this week. According to analysts, investors will have a close eye on trade developments and economic data like IIP and Q2 FY26 GDP data.

“With macro signals turning mixed and global cues offering limited clarity, a balanced approach is advisable. Investors may prioritise sectors with visible earnings traction and renewed interest—such as banking, auto, IT, and consumption—while remaining selective in other pockets,” said Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking Ltd.

Traders should exercise caution around expiry and key macro releases, using a buy-on-dips strategy only near established support levels, he added.

Nifty gave a decisive close above the 26,000 resistance, demonstrating sustained strength and buyers’ willingness to defend higher levels.

“The index continues to trade above its key moving averages -- the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day EMAs-- further confirming a broader bullish undertone. As long as it remains above these levels, market sentiment is expected to stay constructive and upward-biased,” according to Amruta Shinde of Choice Broking.

Domestic equity indices edged 0.68 and 0.50 per cent higher last week to close at 26,068 and 85,231, respectively. The upward momentum was supported by stronger second-quarter (Q2) earnings, easing inflation and optimism around the India-US trade negotiations.

Broader indices underperformed, with the Nifty Midcap100 and Smallcap100 ending the week down 0.76 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively.

Though IT stocks faced selling pressure due to weakness in the US tech shares, it was the biggest weekly gainer. Nifty Auto and Services followed as the sectoral gainers during the week.

“The market may witness some profit booking in the near term if the pressure on the Indian rupee persists. In the week ahead, investors will also have a close vigil on trade developments and economic data like IIP and Q2 FY26 GDP data to get the market direction,” said analysts.

Movement of Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, and the rupee-dollar trend would also be tracked by investors. “Overall, we expect markets to remain firm this week, supported by buying on dips, improving demand outlook in Q3 and resilient flows.

Any progress on the India-US trade talks would be a key short-term catalyst for the markets,” Siddhartha Khemka - Head of Research, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said. Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, said, “Indian markets are likely to trade with a mildly positive bias, supported by resilient domestic macros and markets at near all-time highs”.