Indian Markets Brace for a Mixed Opening: What Lies Ahead for Nifty and Sensex on June 17th?

As the Indian stock market awakens this Tuesday, June 17th, investors are keenly watching global cues that suggest a subdued start for benchmark indices. After a remarkable surge on Monday, will the Sensex and Nifty 50 maintain their momentum, or are we in for a period of consolidation? Let's delve into what market experts are forecasting for today's trading session.

The early indicators from Gift Nifty are pointing towards a slightly weaker opening for our domestic benchmarks. Currently, Gift Nifty is hovering around the 24,974 mark, reflecting a small discount compared to Nifty futures' previous close. This suggests a cautious sentiment pervading the market as traders digest the latest developments.

Yesterday, however, was a day of significant gains for the Indian equities. The Nifty 50 impressively closed above the 24,900 level, painting a bullish picture. The Sensex too, had a robust session, climbing 677.55 points (0.84%) to settle at 81,796.15, while the Nifty 50 advanced 227.90 points (0.92%) to end at 24,946.50. This strong finish leaves many wondering if the bull run has more steam left.

Decoding Nifty 50: Resistance, Support, and the Road Ahead

For those keeping a close eye on the Nifty 50, the Open Interest (OI) data offers crucial insights into potential turning points. According to Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking, significant call option concentration is observed at the 25,000 and 25,200 strike prices. These levels are expected to act as formidable resistance, meaning the index might struggle to move past them easily. On the flip side, strong put option build-up at 24,900 and 24,800 suggests these zones will provide robust support, potentially limiting downside movements.

Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, highlighted Nifty 50's impressive follow-through on June 16th, forming a "long bull candle" and decisively breaking past the recent downside gap at 24,825. He believes the Nifty is now comfortably nestled within a broader range of 24,500 - 25,100, showing signs of moving towards the upper end of this spectrum. Shetti remains optimistic about the underlying trend, anticipating a push towards 25,100 - 25,200 in the coming sessions, with 24,800 acting as immediate support.

Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President of Hedged.in, echoed the sentiment of a range-bound movement, noting that while yesterday's rally filled the gap between 24,900 and 24,700, the index remains within the 24,500 and 25,200 band. He pointed out that option writers' data also suggests a confined trading range for now. Interestingly, despite the upward rally, the stochastics have continued to fall, indicating that the upside momentum might be capped. Dwarakanath suggests a strategy of selling near resistance and buying near support until a decisive breakout occurs.

VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, emphasized the formation of a bullish Marubozu candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe for Nifty 50, which she believes has significantly boosted market sentiment. For the current week, the range of 24,600 to 24,700 will be critical to watch. As long as the Nifty remains above this zone, bulls are expected to defend it. With the RSI at 55, indicating a moderate buying range, Ambala sees any dips within this range as potential buying opportunities, forecasting support between 24,900 and 24,750, and resistance near 25,180 and 25,250.

Bank Nifty: Can the Banking Sector Lead the Charge?

After four consecutive sessions of declines, the Bank Nifty index finally found its footing on Monday, gaining 417.55 points (0.75%) to close at 55,944.90. This rebound has sparked hopes for renewed vigor in the banking sector.

Bajaj Broking Research noted that Bank Nifty formed a "bull candle" and successfully filled its Friday's gap-down area, also reclaiming its 20-day EMA. They anticipate a move above 56,000 could pave the way for further upside towards 56,600 and 57,000. However, failure to breach 56,000 might lead to consolidation between 56,000 and 55,000, with stock-specific action dominating. On the downside, a slip below 55,000 could open doors to the key support area of 54,500 - 55,000.

Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, observed that Bank Nifty's bullish candle on the daily chart marks a strong rebound from its recent swing low. The index has not only reclaimed the 20-day SMA but also closed above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 55,840. Mehra highlighted 56,100 as a crucial short-term resistance, coinciding with the 50% retracement level. A sustained move above this could propel the index towards 56,640. Conversely, the 20-day EMA and 23.6% retracement at 55,475 will act as immediate support. While the RSI has recovered, the MACD remains in negative territory, suggesting caution. Mehra advises that a decisive close above 56,200 would strengthen bullish sentiment, while dips towards 55,800 – 55,720 could present favorable buying opportunities.

In essence, while the Indian markets are looking at a cautious start today, the underlying sentiment, particularly for Nifty 50, appears to be positive. Investors will be closely watching key support and resistance levels, and any fresh global cues, to navigate the trading session ahead.