India sees shift in consumer wallet share

Key Takeaways

• Nifty has given 8.7% return over the past 6 weeks

• State election results, hopes of interest rate cut in 2024

• Massive Infrastructure development

• Significant increase in domestic demand

New Delhi: India will see a significant shift in consumer wallet share towards discretionary and premium products as we move towards a $5 trillion economy in the coming few years, says Amnish Aggarwal - Head of Research, Prabhudas Lilladher.

“We believe trends are already visible across PV’s, 2W, FMCG, Jewellery, Mobiles, Smartwatches, Real Estate, Food Delivery, Fintech and Travel”, Aggarwal said.

Nifty has given 8.7 per cent return over the past six weeks as a confluence of strong FII inflows, State election results and hopes of interest rate cut in 2024 ignited the markets. Domestic demand remains mixed as rural recovery is stunted due to inflation and poor spatial distribution of monsoons while urban India is resilient, the report said.

The report said India is in the most transformative phase in its history with massive Infrastructure development (Highways, Logistics, Ports, railways, Metro), Defense, PLI and significant increase in domestic demand with rising income levels and youngest population globally.

Markets have been exuberant post State election results as chances of ruling NDA coming to power post elections has increased significantly, however it remains the biggest risk also.

“We remain positive on Banks, Capital Goods, Hospitals, Pharma and Discretionary consumption. Nifty is trading at 10.8 per cent discount to 10-year average with 12.6 per cent EPS CAGR over FY24-26. We increase our base case NIFTY target to 24,544 (22,584 earlier) with clear focus on quality and companies with strong balance sheets and business moats,” the report said.