Global tensions and volatility unsettle markets, investors remain cautious

The week that just passed was wild, volatile, topsy-turvy, and unpredictable, leaving both bulls and bears burned, and the worst part was that it left everyone confused and worried. The US-Israel-Iran war has entered its fourth week, and the only loser as of today is the common man.

Energy security is the worst thing that could have happened, and we are sitting a few meters away from the current war spreading globally. USA President Donald Trump seems to be changing his mind at the drop of a hat and is totally confused a situation which can boomerang when you are up against someone as deadly as Iran.

What the last six trading days of the financial year 2026 have in store for all of us is anybody’s guess. The only thing clear at this point in time is that this has been a bad year, and even the change from this year to the next is not going to matter.

BSESENSEX lost 30.96 points or 0.04 per cent to close at 74,532.96 points, while NIFTY lost 36.60 points or 0.16 per cent to close at 23,114.50 points. BANKNIFTY lost 330.80 points or 0.62 per cent to close at 53,427.05 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 0.22 per cent, 0.26 per cent and 0.28 per cent respectively.

BSEMIDCAP lost 0.04 per cent while BSESMALLCAP gained 0.13 per cent. The top sartorial gainer was BSEAUTO, which was up 1.56 per cent while the top loser was BSEOIL&GAS, which lost 3.30 per cent.

The weekly statistics do not convey the volatility that markets witnessed and experienced. After a massive 4,354 points fall on the BSESENSEX and 1,299 points on NIFTY in the previous week, markets gained an impressive 50 per cent or thereabouts on the next three days. The highs made were 74,563.92 points on BSESENSEX and 23,862.25 points on NIFTY.

From there on, Thursday, all hell was let loose, and we slipped to levels which were even lower than that of Friday week. These levels were at 74,207 points on BSESENSEX and at 23,002 on NIFTY. A small recovery on Friday was not enough for markets to end the week in positive territory. Our markets lost on just one session in the week and gained on four sessions.

The Indian Rupee was under big pressure and lost Rs1.20 or 1.30 per cent to close at Rs93.78 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones lost 981 points or 2.11 per cent to close at 45,577.47 points. Dow lost on three of the five trading sessions and gained on two.

In primary market news, we had one listing last week from Rajputana Stainless Limited, which had issued shares at Rs122. Shares listed on Thursday, the 19th of March. They closed at Rs112.90, a loss of Rs9.10. They recovered marginally on Friday to close at Rs113.30, a loss of Rs8.70 or 7.13 per cent.

The week ahead will see the listing of three issues. These would happen on Monday and Tuesday. The issue from Innovation Limited would be listed on Monday, the 23rd of March, while the issues from Raajmarg Infra Investment Trust and GSP Crop Science Limited would happen on Tuesday, the 24th of March.

There is one main board IPO which has opened on Friday and will close on Tuesday, the 24th of March. The issue is from Coal India Limited’s subsidiary, CMPDI (Central Mine Planning & Design Institute Limited). The price band is Rs163-172, and the issue is entirely an offer for sale.

The company would be raising Rs1,842 crores. The company is a near monopoly and offers surveys for mines, mine planning, and offers a detailed mine closure scheme for mines where resources have been extracted. It has been working for coal and allied minerals and has also been entrusted with rare earth minerals as the central agency.

The remaining three issues would open on Tuesday, the 24th of March, and close on Friday, the 27th of March. The first of these is from Powerica Limited, which is into the assembly, supply, and installation of standby generators and alternators for varied applications. It also has a renewable power division, which owns wind assets and acts as an IPP and EPC contractor.

The price band of the issue is Rs375-395. The issue consists of a fresh issue of Rs700 crores and an offer for sale of Rs400 crores. The second issue is from Sai Parentals Limited, which is a fresh issue of Rs285 crores and an offer for sale of Rs123.79 crores in a price band of Rs372-392.

The third and final issue is from rice processor and exporter, Amir Chand Jagdish Kumar (Exports) limited which consists of a fresh issue of Rs440 crores in a price band of Rs201-212. The company is a processor of rice having two plants in Punjab and Haryana.

It sells about 35 per cent of its produce in exports and 65 per cent domestically. In terms of capacity utilization, it is currently 50 per cent, having improved from 37 per cent in the previous year. It expects to do better as it raises capital for working capital. It has also entered the FMCG segment to take advantage of its dealer network.

Market conditions are quite choppy and uncertain. We have a mere six trading sessions before the financial year ends, and no clarity on what will happen in the Middle East. As far as the four new IPOs are concerned, there must be a compelling reason for one to subscribe in these trying times. If one were to ask me, I would like to wait out this period and look at these issues when they list, even if it means buying at higher prices.

Coming to the markets in the coming week, new levels were shown on the downside, along with accelerated speed and turmoil. For the current week, immediate support exists at 22,500-22,700 points on NIFTY. On the lower side, we have support at 22,150-22,200 points. Immediate resistance exists at 23,300-23,400 points and if this were to break at 23,800 points.

The strategy would be to keep it simple. Look for trading opportunities to buy on sharp dips and sell on rallies intraday with no overnight positions. Please remember we have a trading holiday on Thursday, the 26th of March, and the fact that mid-week holidays break market momentum.

Finally, besides trading cautiously, it’s time to keep one’s fingers crossed and hope that Trump has clarity in what he wants to do.

(The author is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services, an advisory firm)