Global shares mostly lower as geopolitical crisis drags investors’ sentiment

Tokyo: Global shares mostly declined, and oil prices surged as investors eyed threats to world energy supplies from the Iran war. US futures also declined, with the contract for the S&P 500 down 1.5 per cent while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6 per cent.

In early European trading, France’s CAC 40 dropped 2.2 per cent to 8,207.10, while in Germany the DAX sank 2.9 per cent to 23,935.62. Britain’s FTSE 100 declined 2.2 per cent to 10,546.30. In South Korea, a big energy importer, the Kospi plunged 7.2 per cent as markets reopened after a holiday on Monday, closing at 5,791.91. Benchmark US crude rose $3.24 to $74.47 a barrel.

Brent crude, the international standard, added $3.56 to $81.30 a barrel. Oil prices jumped Monday over worries that the war could clog the global flow of crude. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 sank 3.1 per cent to finish at 56,279.05.

Like other resource-poor countries in the region, Japan could be especially hit by the lack of access to the Strait of Hormuz, since much of its oil and natural gas imports are shipped through there. Analysts say Japan has a sizable stockpile lasting more than 200 days, and so the threat isn’t immediate.

Japanese energy stocks plunged, with Eneos Corp. down 3.4 per cent and Idemitsu Kosan down 3.1 per cent. Defense-related issues, which have risen recently on expectations of more military spending by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, sank back as traders sold to lock in gains from the day before. Mitsubishi Heavy plunged 5.3 per cent, and IHI lost 4.9 per cent.

In the rest of the region, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 1.3 per cent to 9,077.30, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed 1.1 per cent to 25,768.08. The Shanghai Composite index lost 1.4 per cent to 4,122.68. Stocks of airlines, including American Airlines, United and Delta, were some of Monday’s biggest losers on Wall Street.

Higher oil prices threaten their already big fuel bills, while the fighting in the Middle East also has closed airports and left travellers stranded.

The losses cascaded in Asia, with ANA stock down 3.3 per cent, while Japan Airlines fell 6.4 per cent. Korean Air declined 10.3 per cent and Qantas Airways lost 1.8 per cent. Despite the retreats in many markets, the reactions to the war have been moderated by the fact that past military conflicts in the Middle East haven’t caused long-term declines.

For this war to knock down US stocks in a significant and sustained way, the price of oil would perhaps need to jump above $100 per barrel, according to strategists at Morgan Stanley led by Michael Wilson.

“Since 2000, there have been 22 one-day oil price spikes of more than 10 per cent,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. “In other words, energy shocks do not automatically derail equities unless they are severe and sustained. The market is well aware of that playbook.”