Decoding the Market: Your Essential Guide to Profitable Trades on June 30th

The Indian stock market is buzzing, and the Nifty 50 is leading the charge! Kicking off the July series on a robust note, the benchmark index extended its winning streak to a fourth consecutive session on June 27th, closing at a fresh nine-month high with a respectable 0.35 percent gain. This renewed bullish sentiment can be attributed to a confluence of positive factors: a notable dip in the India VIX, favourable crossovers in key momentum indicators, and a welcome easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Market experts suggest that the road ahead for the Nifty involves breaching the critical resistance zone of 25,750–25,800. A decisive break above this level could pave the way for a strong ascent towards the psychological 26,000 mark, potentially even reaching a new record high. However, traders should be prepared for some consolidation in the interim, with strong support anticipated in the 25,400–25,300 range.

To help you navigate the upcoming trading day and uncover potential profitable trades, we've meticulously compiled 15 crucial data points:

Unpacking the Key Market Indicators: Your Trading Toolkit

1. Nifty 50: The Bulls Are Running (Current: 25,638)

The Nifty 50 is showcasing strong technical formations. It has consistently formed bullish candles for three consecutive sessions, maintaining a "higher-low" pattern for an impressive six straight days. Trading volumes have remained consistently above average, and the index is comfortably trading above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating healthy expansion. Momentum indicators like MACD, Stochastic RSI, and RSI (currently at 67.72) all exhibit positive crossovers with a sustained upward bias in their histograms, strongly signalling a continued uptrend.

Resistance Levels (Pivot Points): 25,655, 25,686, 25,736

Support Levels (Pivot Points): 25,555, 25,524, 25,475

2. Bank Nifty: Banking on New Highs (Current: 57,444)

The banking sector also demonstrated significant strength, with the Bank Nifty touching a new high of 57,475 last Friday. It closed above the upper Bollinger Band, accompanied by a clear expansion in the bands. On the daily timeframe, the Bank Nifty formed a bullish candle with a lower shadow, and trading volumes remained above average. Both the RSI (at 67.31) and Stochastic RSI maintain positive crossovers, while the MACD remains firmly above the zero line, exhibiting a positive crossover and a healthy positive bias in its histogram.

Resistance Levels (Pivot Points): 57,488, 57,602, 57,786

Support Levels (Pivot Points): 57,120, 57,007, 56,823

Resistance Levels (Fibonacci): 57,566, 58,224

Support Levels (Fibonacci): 56,926, 56,587

3. Nifty Call Options: Where Resistance Lies

Weekly options data reveals that the 26,500 strike holds the highest Call Open Interest (OI) with a staggering 79.4 lakh contracts, indicating this level as a significant short-term resistance for the Nifty. The 26,000 strike (77.43 lakh contracts) and 25,900 strike (48.51 lakh contracts) also show considerable Call OI.

The most active Call writing was observed at the 25,900 strike (32.87 lakh contracts added), followed by the 26,000 (27.49 lakh added) and 25,700 strikes (20.47 lakh added). Conversely, significant Call unwinding was seen at the 25,500 strike (10.94 lakh contracts shed), followed by 25,400 (7.49 lakh shed) and 25,300 strikes (6.36 lakh shed).

4. Nifty Put Options: Identifying Support

On the Put side, the 25,000 strike boasts the maximum Put OI (88.63 lakh contracts), acting as a crucial support level. The 25,500 strike (87.69 lakh contracts) and 25,400 strike (66.45 lakh contracts) also show substantial Put OI.

The highest Put writing activity was concentrated at the 25,600 strike (49.78 lakh contracts added), followed by the 25,500 (36.18 lakh added) and 25,000 strikes (30.38 lakh added). Interestingly, minimal Put unwinding was observed across the 24,800-26,750 strike band.

5. Bank Nifty Call Options: Upper Hurdles

Monthly options data for Bank Nifty indicates that the 56,000 strike has the highest Call OI (14.26 lakh contracts), suggesting it as a key resistance level. The 57,000 strike (7.85 lakh contracts) and 59,000 strike (6.76 lakh contracts) also have notable Call OI.

Maximum Call writing was seen at the 57,500 strike (1.54 lakh contracts added), followed by the 59,000 (1.29 lakh added) and 59,500 strikes (1.26 lakh added). Call unwinding was most prominent at the 56,500 strike (18,865 contracts shed), followed by 56,600 (14,385 shed) and 57,100 strikes (13,440 shed).

6. Bank Nifty Put Options: Lower Fortifications

For Bank Nifty Puts, the 56,000 strike holds the maximum OI (19.93 lakh contracts), acting as a strong support level. The 57,000 strike (11.11 lakh contracts) and 56,500 strike (5.12 lakh contracts) also show significant Put OI.

The highest Put writing was observed at the 57,000 strike (2.56 lakh contracts added), followed by the 57,500 (2.43 lakh added) and 57,200 strikes (1.53 lakh added). Similar to Nifty, hardly any Put unwinding was seen in the 55,700-59,600 strike band.

7. Funds Flow (All figures in Rs crore): A Glimpse into Institutional Activity

8. Put-Call Ratio (PCR): Gauging Market Sentiment

The Nifty Put-Call Ratio (PCR), a key indicator of market mood, slightly decreased to 1.25 on June 27th from 1.28 in the previous session. A PCR above 0.7, especially above 1, generally signifies a bullish market sentiment, as traders are selling more Put options (betting on a rise) than Call options (betting on a fall). Conversely, a ratio below 0.7 suggests a more bearish outlook.

9. India VIX: The Fear Gauge Calms Down

The India VIX, often referred to as the "fear index," continued its downward trajectory for the fourth consecutive session, declining by 1.61 percent to settle at 12.39. This marks its lowest closing level since October 1, 2024, a development that is decidedly favourable for the bulls, indicating reduced market volatility and uncertainty.

10. Long Build-up: Signs of Optimism

A total of 80 stocks witnessed a "long build-up," characterized by an increase in open interest (OI) alongside a rise in price. This suggests that traders are initiating fresh long positions, anticipating further price appreciation.

11. Long Unwinding: Profit Taking or Caution?

27 stocks experienced "long unwinding," where a decline in open interest (OI) was accompanied by a fall in price. This typically indicates that traders are closing out their existing long positions, either to book profits or due to a cautious outlook.

12. Short Build-up: Bearish Bets

"Short build-up" was observed in 68 stocks, marked by an increase in OI coupled with a fall in price. This signals that traders are initiating fresh short positions, anticipating a decline in stock prices.

13. Short-Covering: Relief Rally

49 stocks saw "short-covering," where a decrease in OI coincided with a price increase. This suggests that traders who had previously taken short positions are now closing them out, leading to a bounce in prices.

14. High Delivery Trades: Investor Confidence

Certain stocks witnessed a high share of delivery trades, indicating significant investing interest rather than short-term trading. These are often viewed as signs of conviction from long-term investors.

15. Stocks Under F&O Ban: Watch Out!

The Futures & Options (F&O) segment imposes a ban on securities when their derivative contracts exceed 95 percent of the market-wide position limit. For June 30th:

Stocks added to F&O ban: Nil

Stocks retained in F&O ban: Nil

Stocks removed from F&O ban: Nil