Dalal Street Weekly Preview: 10 Factors That Could Move Markets This Week
Stock Market July 28–Aug 1: Earnings, FOMC meet, trade talks, F&O expiry, and auto sales to drive Dalal Street.
Dalal Street Outlook: Q1 Earnings, US Fed Meet, Trade Deal Deadline Among Key Triggers
Dalal Street heads into a crucial week starting July 28 amid weak quarterly earnings, rising global uncertainty, and heavy foreign investor outflows. After four consecutive weeks of losses, analysts expect the consolidation phase to continue, with heightened volatility likely as the July F&O expiry approaches.
The BSE Sensex ended last week down 0.4% at 81,463, while the Nifty 50 slipped 0.5% to 24,837. Broader markets bore sharper losses, with the Nifty Midcap 100 down 1.85% and the Smallcap 100 tumbling 3.5%.
Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal Financial Services noted that mixed Q1FY26 earnings and persistent FII outflows are weighing on investor sentiment. Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments warned that premium valuations may be difficult to sustain amid weak aggregate results.
Here are the 10 key factors that will steer markets this week:
1. June Quarter Earnings
Over 500 companies will release results, including Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever, Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra, Coal India, Sun Pharma, ITC, and Bharat Electronics.
Mid-cap and private companies such as PNB, Swiggy, PB Fintech, Indigo, Tata Power, Adani Power, Dabur, Godrej Properties, Delhivery, and Mankind Pharma are also due to report. Analysts believe results so far have been largely in line with expectations.
2. US Trade Deal Deadline
The August 1 deadline for new US trade agreements looms large. President Donald Trump has threatened tariffs of up to 30% on EU imports and 35% on certain Canadian goods if no deals are struck. Talks with China resume in Stockholm this week, while India’s mini trade deal hopes dim as US negotiators plan an August visit.
3. FOMC Meeting
The US Federal Reserve announces its policy decision on July 30. Economists expect rates to remain at 4.25–4.50%, the fifth straight pause. Markets will watch for cues on potential cuts in September, amid pressure from the Trump administration.
4. Global Economic Data and BoJ Policy
Key US data this week includes GDP estimates, PCE prices, non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and personal spending figures. Europe’s Q2 GDP flash data and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision will also be closely monitored.
5. Auto Sales Numbers
July auto sales, due later this week, will keep stocks like Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki, TVS Motor, Eicher Motors, Hero MotoCorp, and Bajaj Auto in focus. June’s performance was mixed, and July numbers will offer cues on consumer demand.
6. Domestic Economic Data
India will release June industrial production and fiscal deficit figures this week. On August 1, markets will eye the HSBC Manufacturing PMI along with bank loan growth and foreign exchange reserves data.
7. FII and DII Activity
FIIs remained net sellers last week, offloading ₹13,553 crore worth of shares, pushing July’s net outflow to over ₹30,000 crore. In contrast, DIIs stepped up with purchases worth nearly ₹40,000 crore this month, offsetting FII exits.
8. IPO Rush
The primary market remains busy with 14 IPOs worth over ₹7,300 crore. Key listings include NSDL, Laxmi India Finance, Aditya Infotech, Sri Lotus Developers & Realty, and M&B Engineering, along with nine SME issues. Twelve companies are set for stock market debuts this week.
9. Technical Outlook and F&O Expiry
The Nifty 50 is expected to trade in the 24,700–25,200 range, with 24,700 seen as immediate support and 25,000 as key resistance. The volatility index dropped for the sixth straight week to 11.28, its lowest since April 2024, hinting at a possible major move ahead.
10. Currency and Global Cues
The rupee weakened for a fourth week to 86.4570 against the US dollar, while the US dollar index slipped 0.8% to 97.67. Both are expected to remain volatile as global trade and Fed decisions unfold.
