A choppy start to FY27 for markets amid unsettled global backdrop

It was a short, truncated week with trading on only three sessions. Markets gained on two of the three sessions and lost on one. The short week was, however, very eventful. It began with the expiry of NIFTY March futures, the end of trading for the financial year 2025-2026, and the start of the new financial year 2026-27. One can only hope and pray that the New Year brings better tidings.

The three trading sessions were different from each other. While the first day was a down day, the second day was an up day, and the third saw a sharp recovery from down day to actually close positive. The spectacular recovery in the Indian Rupee also helped sentiment.

BSESENSEX lost 263.67 points or 0.36 per cent to close at 73,319.55 points, while NIFTY lost 106.50 points or 0.47 per cent to close at 22,713.10 points. BANKNIFTY lost 725.85 points or 1.39 per cent to close at 51,548.75 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 0.36 per cent, 0.43 per cent and 0.29 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 0.48 per cent while BSESMALLCAP gained 1.48 per cent. BSEIT was the top sectorial gainer and was up 2.95 per cent.

The Indian Rupee was the top performer and saw a spectacular recovery and gained a massive Rs1.50 or 1.58 per cent to close at Rs93.23. This was not because of RBI intervention on the Rupee, but the RBI ensured that speculators on the Indian Rupee did not get access to cheap funds to be used for Rupee-Dollar speculation. Things worked and worked wonderfully.

Dow Jones gained on three of the four trading sessions and lost on one. It was up 1,338.03 points or 2.96 per cent to close at 46,504.67 points.

NIFTY March futures expired on a weak note, and the series saw losses of a massive 3,093.25 points or 12.17 per cent to close at 22,331.40 points. The last time we saw similar losses was six years back when COVID-19 had broken out. This was in March 2020, and the level of NIFTY was around 8,660 points.

We had four listings during the week, and it was certainly not encouraging. It could be termed as a bad end to the year which has ended, and also a poor beginning. The first of the list was from Coal India subsidiary, Central Mine Planning Design Institute Limited, which was listed on Monday, the 30th of March 2026. It had issued shares at Rs172. While the share closed day one at Rs154.05, a loss of Rs17.95, it recovered marginally to close at Rs155.95 at weekend. The share lost Rs16.05 or 9.33 per cent.

There were three listings on Thursday, the 2nd of April. The first of these was from Powerica Limited, which had issued shares at Rs395. Shares closed at Rs390, a loss of Rs5 or 1.27 per cent.

The second was from Sai Parenterals, which had issued shares at Rs392. The share closed day one with support from the house, which had brought the issue as lead manager, and it closed at Rs406.40, a gain of Rs14.40 or 3.67 per cent. Arihant Capital Markets Limited bought 4,51,212 shares on BSE at Rs407.60. How one should read this is a bit confusing, but not something that normally happens.

The third and final issue was from Amir Chand Jagdish Kumar Exports Limited, which had issued shares at Rs212. The share opened at Rs195 and closed at Rs175.50, a loss of Rs36.50 or 17.22 per cent. Very clearly, it appears that the issue was not well-marketed or accepted by the investors.

Coming to the week ahead, we have the RBI meeting for its bi-monthly monetary policy meeting from Monday to Wednesday. It is widely expected that the RBI could keep rates unchanged with the current Repo rates at 5.25 per cent.

An update on war. Donald Trump continues with his wild statements, and his self-imposed timeline or ultimatum would expire on Sunday/Monday for making the Strait of Hormuz open. The war has been opened on many fronts, and hearing the American side of the story, one wonders what is left in Iran. Yet, they are able to take down aircraft and make life hell for the Middle East neighbors where there are US bases. How this war would end, when it would end, is now becoming a major cause for concern for all. Iran has sent a list of bridges that are under their active consideration for retaliation if their infrastructure is attacked. The less talked about the US-Iran war, the better. This war makes your blood boil at the casualties that it is throwing up, even without a ground assault. What would happen if a ground war began, Heaven help?

Coming to the week ahead. We would have trading for five full trading sessions, which would certainly make trading momentum hold and not have jerks. It would be volatile and choppy and the entire focus would be on the geopolitical issues.

The lows made on Thursday, which was the last trading day at 71.545.81 points on BSESENSEX and at 22,182.55, would act as supports on any down move. If these were to break, we have support at 70,000 points and 21,700 points, respectively. Will these levels be reached or breached? Only time will tell. On the upside, we have resistance at 23,000 points and 74,500 points.

The strategy for the week would be to avoid overnight positions and concentrate on intra-day moves. It will provide enough opportunities for trade. For building a portfolio, it’s time to wait for probably another 7-14 days, when better clarity would be available.

Trade cautiously and for our betterment, hope that clarity and sanity makes geo-political situation normalize at the earliest.

(The author is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services, an advisory firm)