Upward trajectory likely in gold, silver prices

New Delhi: Gold and silver prices are expected to maintain their upward trajectory this week, but may see late profit-booking amid the release of a series of crucial global economic indicators, analysts said. On the economic front, traders will closely monitor the manufacturing/ services PMI data from across regions and the US non-farm payrolls/ employment data along with consumer confidence for the month of September and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials, they added.

“We expect the current positive momentum in both bullions to continue, however, some profit-booking cannot be ruled out towards the end of the week. Gold prices continued their positive momentum and closed the week higher by more than three per cent as better-than-expected economic numbers released from the US has slightly pushed back expectations of an interest rate cut,” said Pranav Mer, vice-president, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services.

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for December delivery soared by Rs4,188 or 3.77 per cent during the week to close at Rs1,14,891 per 10 grams on Friday. The contract touched an all-time high of Rs1,15,139 per 10 grams on Tuesday. Gold has now posted twelve consecutive weekly gains since June 27, when MCX prices stood at Rs95,587 per 10 grams.

“The rally is being driven by a potent mix of US macroeconomic signals, global reserve realignments, and domestic festive demand,” said Pankaj Singh, Investment Manager on Smallcase and Founder & Principal Researcher of SmartWealth.ai. Singh pointed out that US inflation data matched forecasts, while income and spending figures confirmed the resilience of the American economy.

“Market participants remain convinced that the Federal Reserve is on track for two rate cuts by year-end, with October easing odds remaining very high. Meanwhile, lower US Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions have amplified gold’s safe-haven appeal,” he said.

Central banks’ tilt towards gold has also underpinned demand. Citing IMF data, Singh said the dollar’s share in global reserves has fallen from 71 per cent in 1999 to 58 per cent in 2024, while gold’s share rose to 24 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, the highest in three decades. “The market outlook remains slightly bullish. With festive demand building ahead of Diwali and no major US data until Friday’s jobs report, gold has every reason to hold its ground,” he added. Echoing similar sentiment, Jyoti Prakash, Managing Partner, Equity and PMS at AlphaaMoney said: “Predicting whether the price of gold will rise or fall in the coming week is like a toss of a coin. However, this asset class is in momentum, registering record highs on Friday.

Therefore, the trend is upwards.” He attributed the surge to solid investor interest in gold ETFs, which have drawn $50 billion in inflows so far in 2025, the highest since 2020. “A weaker US dollar is also acting as a tailwind for gold,” Prakash said. On Saturday, the dollar index fell 0.38 per cent to close at 98.18 against major peers.

In global trade, gold futures gained $103.2 or 2.78 per cent, ending at $3,809 per ounce after hitting a record $3,824.60 per ounce during the week. NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity Desk & CRM at Ventura, said the gold futures have rallied from $3,706 to $3,809 per ounce giving an upside of 2.78 per cent has hammered the narratives that the yellow metal is “overbought, overcrowded, overdone.”