Key global triggers to shape Indian commodity markets next week

Commodity markets in India are expected to track global cues next week, with traders focusing on key economic data from China, US inflation readings, and President Donald Trump’s remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Commodity markets are likely to remain driven by global macroeconomic developments next week, with Indian investors closely tracking economic data from China, US inflation indicators, and geopolitical signals from President Donald Trump’s upcoming speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Markets navigated a volatile week amid rising geopolitical tensions, concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve, and uncertainty around Trump’s stance on Fed leadership. The US dollar strengthened for a third consecutive week, hitting a seven-week high, supported by resilient economic data that reduced expectations of near-term interest rate cuts.

Strong US labour market data, improving manufacturing sentiment, and a rebound in retail sales added to the dollar’s strength. However, US equity markets ended the week lower as investor sentiment weakened following reports of a criminal probe linked to the Federal Reserve and Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran.

In this backdrop, precious metals witnessed strong gains. COMEX gold and silver touched record highs, supported by heightened geopolitical risks and policy uncertainty. Gold later eased as tensions around Iran moderated, while expectations of imminent US rate cuts faded. In India, MCX Gold Futures opened the week with a gap-up but later entered a consolidation phase. Prices remain above key short-term averages, indicating that the broader bullish trend is still intact.

Analysts expect MCX gold to maintain a mildly positive bias in the coming week. Immediate resistance is seen near ₹1,43,600 per 10 grams, followed by ₹1,45,200, while support is placed at ₹1,40,500. A sustained move below this level could lead to further correction towards ₹1,38,500.

Silver also posted strong weekly gains, supported by tight global supply and rising demand from clean energy and AI-linked industries. However, late-week profit-taking and regulatory measures in China led to some volatility. MCX Silver prices are expected to remain sensitive to global risk sentiment and dollar movement.

Base metals witnessed consolidation after a sharp rally, as profit-taking emerged following China’s move to curb high-frequency trading. Copper and aluminium eased from recent highs, while zinc outperformed on tightening supply conditions. Indian base metal prices on MCX are expected to mirror global trends and cues from Chinese economic data.

Crude oil prices remained volatile, rising initially on fears of supply disruptions linked to tensions with Iran before easing as geopolitical concerns moderated. MCX Crude Oil ended the week largely flat, with traders cautious about further escalation risks.

Looking ahead, markets will closely watch key data releases, including China’s economic indicators, US core PCE inflation, final GDP figures, and flash manufacturing PMIs from major economies. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, while Trump’s speech at Davos will be monitored for fresh policy signals that could influence global commodities and currency markets.