India rebalances crude oil imports

New Delhi: India’s crude import strategy is entering a phase of calibrated rebalancing rather than abrupt realignment, with Middle Eastern suppliers led by Saudi Arabia regaining market share even as Russia remains significant but increasingly shaped by geopolitics and compliance constraints, according to shipping data and analysts.

During February 1–18, India’s total crude imports averaged 4.85 million barrels per day (bpd), down 8 per cent from January’s 5.25 million bpd, as flows from Russia cooled following US sanctions on key exporters and the EU’s latest sanctions package taking effect. Ship-tracking data showed Russian shipments to India declining from 1.28 million bpd in December 2025 to 1.22 million bpd in January and further to around 1.09 million bpd in early February, a month-on-month fall of about 10 per cent.

“Russian crude imports into India are estimated at around 1.0–1.2 million bpd in February, easing toward roughly 800,000 bpd to 1 million bpd in March,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler. Import of Russian crude, which India began buying heavily after discounted barrels became available post the Ukraine war in 2022, is seen stabilising rather than collapsing. However, Ritolia said this represents short-term stabilisation rather than a return to mid-2025 peaks, with Russia’s share expected to settle at a lower range in 2026 as commercial and policy frictions build.