Iran war success or stalemate? Trump faces tough exit questions

President Donald Trump has listed five objectives that the US wants to achieve before ending its war with Iran. Now, as he suggests the US may soon be "winding down" the operation after three and a half weeks, some of his key aims remain undefined or unfulfilled.

Trump most recently outlined five goals for the massive air campaign. That's up from four laid out by his staff and since the war's start February 28 (and up from the three generally enumerated by the Pentagon and Secretary of State Marco Rubio).

Though the Trump administration has said its objectives are clear and unchanging, the list of priorities has expanded and shifted as the war has taken a toll on the global economy, tested alliances and raised unanswered questions about the planning for the conflict, its justification and its aftermath. By most accounts, the strikes by the US and Israel have significantly degraded Iran's military capabilities and killed scores of senior leaders.

But those tactical successes don't necessarily translate to achieving all the president's strategic aims. Some of his objectives are difficult to achieve and if the US walks away with unfinished aims and Iran's paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard in power, Trump could face political fallout at home and global repercussions about what was accomplished in his decision to launch a war of choice that upended the Middle East and roiled the global economy.

Anna Kelly, a White House spokesperson, said the operation "has been a resounding success - Iran's navy is destroyed, their defence industrial base is dismantled, and their dreams of possessing a nuclear weapon shatter more by the day." Here's a look at the objectives as laid out in Trump's words Friday and where they stand:

'Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability'

One of the prime objectives laid out by the president with Iran is to "destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground." The administration says that ability has been significantly degraded. But in the fourth week of the war, Iran is still launching missiles and drones, including a series of barrages at Israel early Tuesday after Trump claimed that negotiations with Iran were underway.

In an update last week, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran's missile and drone programmes are being "overwhelmingly destroyed" and ballistic missile attacks against US forces are "down 90 per cent since the start of the conflict."

Trump on Monday repeated that 90 per cent statistic and said, "They can't launch them, and they don't have very many of them, as most of them have been annihilated." He added on Tuesday that 82 per cent of Iran's missile launchers were "killed."

'Destroying Iran's Defence Industrial Base'

Before Friday, the president and his administration sometimes listed this as a standalone objective, describing it as a goal to "raze their missile industry to the ground."

Other times, this has fallen off the list. The Pentagon has generally lumped it into the first objective of destroying Iran's missile capability.

US Central Command has said its targets for strikes in Iran have included weapons production and missile and drone manufacturing facilities. But Iranian attacks against its Gulf neighbours and Israel continue.

'Eliminating their Navy and Air Force'

The US and Israel quickly established air superiority in the skies above Iran, where they have flown largely unchallenged. US Central Command said Monday the US has damaged or destroyed more than 140 Iranian vessels.

After a US submarine torpedoed and sank an Iranian warship in early March, two other Iranian vessels - the IRIS Bushehr and IRIS Lavan - docked in Sri Lanka and India and sought assistance from the two countries. There has been no indication from the US that they have since been sunk or captured.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard has its own navy that also relies on smaller vessels to do swarm attacks and drop mines. It is unclear how much of that force remains or whether it has planted any mines. But Iranian missiles continue to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

'Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability'

Trump made a marked shift over the last year after declaring that the US has "obliterated" Iran's nuclear programme in June, only for his aides to warn that Iran was just weeks away from a bomb to justify the current operations.

The US has not announced new strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, but Israel has announced a series of strikes on nuclear-related targets, including the killing of a top Iranian nuclear scientist.

One of the most pressing questions in the war is whether Trump will seek to seize or destroy about 970 pounds of enriched uranium Tehran has that could potentially be used for a weapon. Trump for the first time on Monday said the US would retrieve the uranium, which is believed to be buried deep under a mountain facility.