HNIs rethink the Gulf dream amid rising West Asia tensions

Bengaluru: Many High Net-worth Individuals (HNIs), especially in the technology sector, are likely to shift back to India from key West Asian cities such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Doha, as the ongoing regional conflict has exposed growing security vulnerabilities.

Sources said several tech leaders planning to invest in properties in cities like Dubai and Riyadh are either postponing or cancelling their decisions amid rising uncertainty.

“Many HNIs who migrated to this region may now move back to India or relocate to Europe,” said a tech industry veteran familiar with ongoing discussions in the sector. “The sentiment around West Asia as a safe global hub has taken a hit.”

In recent years, several Global Capability Centres (GCCs) were set up in cities like Dubai and Riyadh, with multinational companies positioning them as global hubs. However, the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the US and Israel has dented that perception.

Cities across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar have reportedly faced drone and missile threats, disrupting normal life and impacting their image as stable business destinations.

Analysts warn of second-order economic impacts as well. Rising crude oil and gas prices are expected to affect multiple sectors. The semiconductor industry could face helium shortages if disruptions persist. The oil and gas sector remains the worst hit, with several refineries and storage facilities impacted.

The aviation sector is also under pressure, with rising fuel costs forcing airlines to increase fares. Some carriers, including United Airlines, have cancelled flights on select routes.

As disruptions spread across industries, HNIs are likely to rethink their exposure to the region. Demand for second homes in West Asian cities, which had surged in recent years, is expected to weaken.

Cities like Dubai had emerged as major magnets for wealthy expatriates from the US, Europe, China, India and Turkey, driven by low or zero personal income tax, investor-friendly immigration policies, strong infrastructure and perceived political stability.

However, the ongoing conflict appears to be reshaping migration trends. According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report 2025, India was projected to lose around 3,500 millionaires last year. With safety concerns now coming to the forefront, the trend of outward migration may slow, and in some cases, reverse.