Germany’s Friedrich Merz Faces Surprise Defeat in Chancellor Election

Merz Stunned by Historic Defeat in First Vote for German Chancellor

In a dramatic and unprecedented turn of events, conservative leader Friedrich Merz on Tuesday (May 6, 2025) failed in his first attempt to become Germany’s 10th Chancellor since World War II. Falling short by just six votes in parliament, the defeat shocked observers who had widely expected a smooth victory.

This marks the first time since the end of the war that a Chancellor candidate has not secured the post on the initial ballot. The market reacted sharply to the political uncertainty, with Germany’s DAX index dropping 1.8% following the vote.

Merz needed at least 316 votes in the 630-seat Bundestag but garnered only 310, despite his coalition holding a majority of 328 seats. The ballot was conducted in secret, leaving it unclear—perhaps permanently—who among his allies had defected.

Coalition Tensions and Uncertain Path Ahead

Merz leads a coalition comprising his center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the center-left Social Democrats—currently headed by outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Following the setback, coalition members announced plans to regroup and chart the next steps, though the timeline remains uncertain.

Merz is vying to lead Germany after Scholz’s government collapsed last year, prompting national elections in February. Though Scholz officially stepped down on Monday, he remains in a caretaker capacity until a new Chancellor is confirmed.

Europe’s Expectations and Global Stakes

Germany, the European Union’s most populous nation and its largest economy, plays a pivotal role in both regional diplomacy and global stability. The next Chancellor will face a packed agenda, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, shifting U.S. trade policies, a sluggish domestic economy, and a surge in support for far-right, anti-immigrant parties such as Alternative for Germany—now labelled a “right-wing extremist” group by German intelligence.

“The world is in turmoil. Europe needs a strong Germany,” said Carsten Linnemann, CDU’s secretary-general, urging a swift resolution. “We can’t wait for days now—we need clarity quickly.”

What Happens Next?

Under German law, the Bundestag has 14 days to elect a Chancellor by an absolute majority. Merz is free to run again, and other candidates can also enter the race. There’s no cap on how many votes can be held within this window.

If no candidate secures the majority within that time, the President may either appoint the candidate with the most votes or dissolve the Bundestag and call for new elections.

Despite Tuesday’s defeat, Merz’s allies remain optimistic. Johann Wadepuhl, the prospective foreign minister, said, “It’s a frustrating process, but this is democracy in action. We need to be prepared for such scenarios.”

Signs of Coalition Fragility

The surprise outcome revealed deeper tensions within Merz’s coalition. Political biographer Volker Resing, author of Friedrich Merz: His Path to Power, said, “This has never happened before in post-war Germany. It’s a clear sign of fragility within the coalition and a warning that some lawmakers are willing to create instability.”

Still, Resing noted that if Merz secures a win in the second round of voting, the setback may quickly fade from public memory. “But for now, everything is wide open,” he added.