Asteroid 2024 YR4 Could Hit the Moon in 2032: What Scientists Are Saying

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 4% chance to hit the moon in the year 2032, which is why scientists are keeping a close watch on it. Low chance though it is, the potential consequences on lunar and near-Earth activities would make it worthy of being studied.

Why a Moon Collision Matters

An extrapolation of YR4 impact allows them to imagine lunar debris being hurled deep into space, which, within days or weeks, would raise debris level by as much as a thousand fold from normal. The consequences spell danger for astronauts, their satellites, and spacecraft in low-Earth orbit. The Sun and Earth remain far away; their space infrastructure could have an uphill challenge hang on.

Possible Ways to Prevent an Impact

Scientists are considering two main strategies:

1. Blasting the Asteroid:

One of the suggestions proposed by these experts would be to destroy YR4 with a nuclear blast before it hits the moon. One method has never before been attempted in space; it could have the potential of creating even more hazardous debris in the event of failure.

2. Nudging It Off Course:

A more benign way could be to consider a slight alteration in the asteroid's trajectory, much like the DART mission in 2022 that demonstrated it could actually change an asteroid's course. The problem we face with YR4 is that we still don't know its precise mass, which is key in deciding how to mount any deflection.

Known Facts About Asteroid 2024 YR4

The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile first observed it in December 2024 at an estimated size of about 220 feet. NASA classifies asteroids of that size as "city killers," causing severe local damage if they hit Earth. The initial probability of impact was around 3%; such a risk is now ruled out. Now, the focus is on its potential lunar collision.

For the time being, NASA has no plans for a deflection mission. Instead, the James Webb Space Telescope is scheduled to observe YR4 in early 2026. The data from this observation could help refine the asteroid’s trajectory and, hopefully, reduce the likelihood of a lunar impact to zero.